European nations must be ready if Donald Trump pulls the US out of Nato, foreign diplomats have told The Telegraph.
Diplomats from countries with Nato membership said that European capitals needed to “do the planning” and reconsider current defence capabilities in light of threats issued by the former president.
Last week, Mr Trump was all but confirmed as the Republican candidate for the presidential election in November when Nikki Haley withdrew from the contest for the GOP nomination.
The prospect of his possible return to the White House has sparked concerns in Europe about American support for Ukraine as well as the country’s commitment to Nato.
Mr Trump has previously said he would “encourage” Russia to attack Nato members that fail to pay their “bills”, while his former national security adviser John Bolton has predicted he would attempt to withdraw from the alliance if re-elected.
Last month, The Telegraph revealed that the UK Government does not have a contingency plan for such a scenario.
However, there is a dawning realisation in other capitals that such preparations have to be made.
One European diplomat said that Mr Trump’s comments were “of course” a “concern”. “Nobody knows what he’s going to do next,” they said.
The official said that Nato countries needed to “do the planning” for a scenario in which he weakened the American commitment to the alliance. “Preparations need to be in place,” they said.
However, they pointed out that the number of countries meeting the Nato target to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence had risen significantly, meaning that members could tell Mr Trump “he’s getting what he wanted”.
A diplomat from another Nato country said that Mr Trump’s comments had thrown into sharp relief “that we are so overdependent on the US”. They said that a “discussion” about how to hedge against the risk of US withdrawal was “necessary”. Countries such as the UK would need to provide even greater leadership on European security because “if the US pulls out there will be a massive gap”.
A third diplomat said that uncertainty about the US would make European countries “think in our own capitals more about the defence planning – is it adequate or not?”
In the UK, ministers have insisted that Nato has become stronger in the last year, with the accession of Finland in April 2023 and Sweden last week.
However, Lord Darroch, the former UK ambassador to the US, is also among those making the argument that the government needs to be prepared for all eventualities if Mr Trump is re-elected.
Writing for Prospect last month, Lord Darroch, who also served as the UK national security adviser between 2012 and 2015, said: “If I were an official in any prime minister’s office around Europe, I would be commissioning the experts in government to start doing some contingency thinking about how a Nato without the United States would look and function – just in case.”
