As Ron DeSantis braved Iowa’s icy roads and temperatures well below zero to meet supporters in a small community room, he faced an awkward encounter.
A comedian carrying a gold trophy interrupted to walk up and thank the Republican presidential candidate for his “participation” in the 2024 race.
“Governor DeSantis, I want to present to you this participation trophy,” he told him. “Now, [you’re] probably not gonna win the election, right? But we’re proud of you for trying.”
It was the latest humiliation for the 45-year-old Florida governor in his bruising quest to reach the White House.
Once seen as the candidate who could finally loosen Donald Trump’s hold over the Republican Party, Mr DeSantis’s support has been falling amid months of wooden campaigning and staffing woes.
But he still believes he can surprise the critics, and the polls. “I will brave whatever is thrown at me,” he said. “Nothing is handed to you in life.”
He faces his first electoral test on Monday when Republicans across Iowa will venture out in blizzard-like conditions to cast their vote, and kick start the contest to crown the party’s 2024 nominee.
But if the final poll of the Iowa campaign – highly respected among pundits – is to be believed, Mr DeSantis could be in for a humiliating night.
The Des Moines Register poll found Mr DeSantis has been leapfrogged by Nikki Haley, who has jumped to 20 per cent, while he has dropped three points, to 16 per cent. Mr Trump continues to dominate with 48 per cent.
The poll is particularly stinging because Mr DeSantis has gambled all on a strong showing in Iowa, hoping it would give him the momentum to catapult through the other early states and shatter Mr Trump’s aura of invincibility.
📍Atlantic, Iowa — a man came up to DeSantis at his town hall & tried to hand him a participation trophy. He said DeSantis he “probably won’t win the election.” He also called DeSantis “our favorite snowflake.” pic.twitter.com/fTEY9Y4kM9
— Samantha-Jo Roth (@SamanthaJoRoth) January 13, 2024
Since his landslide re-election as governor of Florida in 2022, Mr DeSantis, a Navy veteran with a telegenic family and an Ivy League education, has been feted as a potential future Republican president.
The 2022 elections were disastrous for the GOP, whose predicted “red wave” in the US Congress failed to materialise.
Defy the odds
Mr DeSantis was one of the few Republicans to defy the odds – not just winning re-election but taking districts Democrats had held for years.
The result saw him achieve the once unthinkable: overtaking the 77-year-old former president in the polls.
His presidential bid has since followed a time-tested formula for success. He has toured all 99 counties in Iowa, a state which is bigger than England.
He has courted the state’s large and influential Evangelical base with his promotion of a six-week abortion ban and attacks on transgender rights, winning the backing of key figures among the Christian right.
Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s popular Republican governor, has even risked Mr Trump’s wrath by giving Mr DeSantis her endorsement.
But the convention-defying Mr Trump has broken the Iowa formula, achieving a commanding lead in the state despite largely campaigning from his home in Florida.
Mr DeSantis knows that humiliation in Iowa will prematurely doom his 2024 bid and could even jeopardise a second attempt in 2028.
Some pundits speculate he could quit the race immediately if he places third in the Hawkeye State.
David Polyansky, the campaign’s deputy manager, insisted this would not be the case.
He told The Telegraph: “He continues to improve and improve and when we get a shot at Donald Trump, which we are going to do when Nikki Haley drops out of South Carolina – and she will – then we’ll see.”
To signal their intent, Mr DeSantis will head straight from Iowa to South Carolina, the fourth state to vote in the contest, and the home of Ms Haley.
‘Fired up’
“We’re not stopping. We’re finally fired up and excited for the opportunity,” Mr DeSantis told a group of reporters, including The Telegraph, at an event at Jethro’s BBQ restaurant in Ames, central Iowa.
He had just completed a question and answer session with voters, fielding questions on Joe Biden’s strikes on Houthi rebels, how he would negotiate with Congress, and education policy.
The event in the backroom of the BBQ restaurant was interrupted three times by climate protesters, but those who had endured the bitter winds to come and hear Mr DeSantis were not disappointed.
Mike Powers, a 65-year-old business owner, said that Mr DeSantis and Mr Trump “aren’t that far apart” on the key issues.
He believes the governor has proved “a lot more successful in implementing the changes that need to happen” than the former president, and would bring “ lot less chaos” to the White House.
Retiree Kent Haten, on the other hand, was unconvinced. He has never caucused before, but at 74, has decided to venture out on Monday night to cast his ballot – probably for Mr Trump.
‘Unsettling times’
“I really liked DeSantis,” he said, but notes Mr Trump has four years of Oval Office experience, a comfort in these unsettling times.
The Iowa caucuses, Mr Haten jokes, are on his “bucket list”. A quirk of the US election system, they have set the tempo of the presidential race since 1972.
Unlike states that hold primaries, Iowa requires voters to caucus – gather in person to hear speeches from a representative for each candidate, and then cast a ballot for the one that has convinced them.
The nature of the system means the strength of a candidate’s grassroots organisation – recruiting volunteers to ensure voters show up on the night and stump for them – is critical.
Allies of Mr DeSantis believe he has the upper hand here. They have at least one “precinct captain” to mobilise voters at each of Iowa’s more than 1,600 precincts.
“We’e still pushing for first or a close second,” a source in the DeSantis orbit told The Telegraph.
Whether that is delusional remains to be seen. Regardless of what happens on Monday those who know Mr DeSantis believe he will stay in the race until early March.
One source said they would be “stunned” if Mr DeSantis dropped out soon, even if he ranked fifth in Iowa. “e’s stubborn as hell,” the source said.
“I don’t see him doing anything different until after South Carolina,” they said.
