UK winters are set to get even wetter thanks to climate change.
That’s according to a new study, which has given a very soggy glimpse into the future of British weather.
Across the entire country, the opening weeks of the year have been exceptionally wet, thanks to a ‘blocked pattern’ in the jet stream.
Now, scientists from the University of Newcastle say that things are going to get even worse.
Their research suggests that for every 1°C of global warming, winter rainfall will increase by seven per cent.
‘The findings from our research show that climate change has already made our winters significantly wetter, with a 7% increase in rainfall per degree of global warming,’ said lead author, Dr James Carruthers.
‘This is really concerning, as seasonal rainfall is increasing at a much faster rate than global climate models have predicted.
‘We’re already experiencing changes in UK winter rainfall that global climate models predict for the 2040s – we’re 20 years ahead.’
Their research suggests that for every 1°C of global warming, winter rainfall will increase by seven per cent
As we’ve already seen over the last few weeks, this increase in precipitation leaves towns at risk of flooding. Pictured: Worcestershire County Cricket Club flooded on February 9
Previous studies have found that winters in Northern and central Europe are becoming significantly wetter, while winters in the Mediterranean are getting drier.
However, until now, how winters in the UK are changing has remained unclear.
To get to the bottom of it, the team looked at winter rainfall across Britain from 1901 through to 2023.
Their analysis confirmed that UK winters are getting wetter as global warming continues.
‘The UK Met Office data show that since the 1980s the UK climate has been warming at a rate of approximately 0.25°C per decade – so we’re seeing almost 9% more rainfall that we did in the 80s,’ Dr Carruthers said.
‘October 2023 to March 2024 was the wettest winter half–year on record, although this year is giving it a run for its money!’
As we’ve already seen over the last few weeks, this increase in precipitation leaves towns at risk of flooding.
Professor Hayley Fowler, an author of the study, said: ‘The extra water that falls every winter across the UK from fossil–fuel induced warming would fill 3 million Olympic sized swimming pools.
While most Brits have had their umbrellas at the ready, people living in certain areas have been worst hit. Topping the list are North Wyke in Devon, Cardinham in Cornwall, and Astwood Bank in Worcester, which have all had 42 consecutive days of rain
Brits have a reputation for talking about the weather, and as the UK suffers yet another day of rain, social media has been alight with chatter
‘This predisposes the country to flooding as the ground is more generally saturated.’
According to Professor Fowler, the only way to prevent this extra rainfall is to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
‘This extra rainfall will continue to increase every year with additional global warming,’ she warned.
‘We can only stop these increases in flooding by stopping the burning of fossil fuels.
‘There is a widening gap between growing climate risks and action on adaptation.
‘It is vitally important that we overhaul our planning and adaptation strategies, with increased investment being directed towards addressing this growing challenge.
‘Without increased resources, there is going to be increasing economic damages, and more casualties from these severe floods.’
Met Office figures for February show that rainfall is already well above average across much of the UK.
By February 8, the city of Aberdeen had already reached 180 per cent of its February average, ahead of Kincardineshire (152 per cent), and Angus (130 per cent).
Further south, by this same date, the Isle of Wight had reached 108 per cent of its average and Worcestershire 103 per cent.
‘These early–month figures illustrate how the persistent unsettled pattern has front–loaded rainfall totals, with some locations surpassing an entire month’s typical rainfall within the first eight days,’ the Met Office explained.
