The Labour MP for Runcorn and Helsby Mike Amesbury has said he will stand down ‘at the earliest opportunity’ triggering the first by-election of Keir Starmer’s premiership.
Amesbury, who won the traditionally safe Labour seat of Runcorn and Helsby by 14,696 votes in July 2024, was filmed repeatedly punching a constituent in a drunken brawl in October.
After knocking the constituent to the ground, the disgraced MP lashed out at least five more times and said: “You won’t threaten your MP again, will you?”
After admitting assault, the 55-year-old was handed a ten-week suspended sentence including mandatory jail time, but this was reduced on appeal as he had already spent three days behind bars.
Amesbury said: “I’m going to step aside at the earliest opportunity. I’ve got processes I must go through – there’s a statutory process in terms of redundancies.”
Usually, a recall petition would be issued which, if signed by over ten per cent of the electorate, would trigger a by-election.
But as Amesbury has stood down less than a year after taking office, the petition is not needed, though it is not yet clear when the by-election will take place.
Can Reform UK win in Runcorn and Helsby?
Reform UK’s Jason Moorcroft scooped 7,662 votes in the General Election placing second, 14,696 votes behind Amesbury.
But latest polling suggests Nigel Farage’s party is the only serious contender in this traditionally safe Labour seat.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for historic pollster accuracy and recency, puts Reform on 29.4 per cent (up 11.3 per cent).
This is still some way behind Labour’s projected vote share of 42.7 per cent (down 10.3 per cent), but incumbent parties often suffer worse than polls suggest in by-elections.
PROJECTED: Runcorn and Helsby (Nowcast model)
PROJECTED: Runcorn and Helsby
ElectionMapsUK
Another sophisticated model by Electoral Calculus and based on their recent ‘mega-poll’ of the UK population shows Reform UK breathing down Labour’s neck in the Cheshire seat.
It projects Labour to take 34.6 per cent of the vote with Reform just behind on 31.9 per cent.
In terms of their chances of winning, that translates to a 54 per cent chance of victory for Labour and a 44 per cent chance for Reform (the Tories have two per cent).
PROJECTED: Runcorn and Helsby (Electoral Calculus)
PROJECTED: Runcorn and Helsby (Electoral Calculus)
Electoral Calculus
The model even offers a ward-by-ward breakdown which reveals Reform to be ahead in two of 14 wards- Beechwood and Heath and Gowy Rural.
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PROJECTED: Runcorn and Helsby wards (Electoral Calculus)
PROJECTED: Runcorn and Helsby wards (Electoral Calculus)
Electoral Calculus
Rob Ford, a professor of politics at Manchester University, said: “Labour has a 35-point majority in Runcorn and Helsby, which may look big, but these are volatile times, and Reform UK are in second place.
“A Labour defeat to Reform would be a big blow to morale and intensify internal arguments over how to respond to Farage, particularly as it would come either soon before or soon after local and mayoral contests which will also feature Reform heavily.
“A Reform byelection win on such a big swing would be a huge deal for Farage, demonstrating his claim to be ‘coming for Labour’ is credible, and likely also showing that Reform can squeeze third-placed Conservative voters where they are the best placed local opponent to Labour,” he said.
Reform UK already began campaigning in the seat over the Christmas period and recently drove a truck with an advertising board on it through the patch.
However, the insurgent party has suffered vicious infighting over recent days resulting in outspoken MP Rupert Lowe being booted out of the party.
Labour’s poll ratings have tanked since the General Election but were buoyed slightly by Starmer’s handling of the Ukraine crisis.
A Reform UK spokesman said: “We stand ready to contest this by-election, it’s one of Labour’s safest seats but we will give it our all.
“Labour have failed Runcorn, Helsby and [the] country since taking office. Runcorn and Helsby needs Reform.”
A Labour Party spokesman said: “The Labour Party took swift action following Mike Amesbury’s completely unacceptable actions and he is no longer a Labour MP or a member of the Labour Party.
“It is right that Mr Amesbury pleaded guilty and has now been sentenced. Local residents in the Runcorn and Helsby constituency deserved better and we look forward to them getting the representation they deserve in the future with a new Labour MP.”
