Volodymyr Zelensky has reached a fork in the road.
Ukraine is slowly losing territory and the support of its allies. Does its president continue on the same path and hope things turn around? Or does he try to corral Western backers into signing up to a scheme that could end the war?
Mr Zelensky has chosen the latter, opting to head to the US with what he has described as a “victory plan”.
Details remain a closely guarded secret, saved for meetings with Joe Biden, the US president, and those vying to replace him in the White House, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
However, the Ukrainian president has outlined the main contours of his four-pronged proposal, which he believes can force Russia to the negotiating table.
“The victory plan, this bridge to strengthening Ukraine, can contribute to more productive future diplomatic meetings with Russia,” he told reporters, adding that the plan should be agreed and implemented by the end of the year.
Nato-style security guarantees
Ukraine has already signed up to long-term security guarantees with about 30 allies.
These mostly comprise agreements that Ukraine’s supporters will restart military aid and sanctions on Moscow in the event of another act of aggression from Russia.
But these fall short of Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, which declares that an attack on one member state is an attack on them all.
Mr Zelensky is seeking a guarantee akin to Article 5, as the threat of a war with Nato would likely be enough to dissuade Vladimir Putin from mounting another invasion.
The US has been one of the main countries blocking Nato extending an invitation to Kyiv to join because of fears the move would trigger an escalation with Moscow.
The Kursk incursion
The Kursk incursion, launched last month by Ukrainian forces, is the first foreign invasion of Russian soil since the Second World War.
The first the world heard of it was from panicked Russians warning that they were under attack.
British Challenger 2 tanks and American Himars rocket launchers were used on Russian soil as Ukrainian forces conquered about 500 square miles of territory.
The assault was designed to serve several purposes for the Ukrainians.
First, it would provide them with an “exchange fund” of captured Russian prisoners of war who could be swapped for Ukrainians being held in captivity.
Second, the Kremlin would be forced to divert resources away from the front lines in eastern Ukraine if it wanted to quash the invasion. This has not happened, Moscow’s forces have doubled down and accelerated their attacks in Ukraine.
For Mr Zelensky’s victory plan, the retention of even a tiny piece of Kursk would act as a huge bargaining chip in any talks with Putin.
There is an expectation that the Kremlin would not allow itself to endure the embarrassment of Ukraine holding some of its territory if the current lines of engagement were frozen.
Long-range missiles
Long before Mr Zelensky spoke of his victory plan, he had been lobbying the US, UK, France and Italy to endorse strikes with Western missiles on Russian soil.
But Mr Biden has so far refused to give the green light to such actions, except for strikes on Russian troops who are preparing to attack Ukraine.
Even if permission for the strikes is eventually given, the delay has allowed Russia to move many of its missile systems and fighter jets out of range.
Though the US has thus far blocked the use of its weapons, Britain could still approve the use of its Storm Shadow missiles.
A top Ukrainian presidential aide previously told The Telegraph that permissions to use Storm Shadow missiles inside Russia are seen as a key demand.
Financial aid for Ukraine’s war-stricken economy
This is by a country mile the least controversial element of Mr Zelensky’s plan to end the war.
Almost every one of Ukraine’s Western allies have agreed to invest in the post-war redevelopment of its economy.
Last week, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission’s president, announced the EU would lend up to $35 billion on a visit to Kyiv.
This could be further topped up to $50 billion if the G7 club of industrialised economies can reach an agreement on underpinning the loan with frozen Russian assets.
The cash could be used to bolster Ukraine’s domestic arms industry further, especially its domestic drone programme, which has proven successful in recent days, destroying at least two big caches of Russian weapons stored deep inside its borders.
“Today you help us in the implementation of this plan and in the future Ukraine will save you a lot of your resources,” Mr Zelensky said.
Why now?
There are several reasons why Mr Zelensky could have chosen now to unveil his plan for victory.
“I’ve put it all on paper, with specific arguments and specific steps to strengthen Ukraine during the months of October, November and December, and to enable a diplomatic end of the war,” he told The New Yorker.
The timeline suggests that Kyiv sees the approaching end of Mr Biden’s term in the White House to be the main reason to go for a diplomatic deal to end hostilities.
Before leaving for the US, Mr Zelensky described his plan as a historic opportunity for Mr Biden to be the president that secures Ukrainian independence.
“Let’s do all this today, while all the officials who want the victory of Ukraine are in official positions,” Mr Zelensky added, in a nod to a potential Trump presidency.
Trump has said he would end the war in 24 hours if he were to win the election in November, without revealing his exact plans to do so.
This has led to fears of a quick and “dirty” peace agreement that would result in Ukraine ceding territory to Russia against its will.
With each day that passes, the military situation in his country becomes ever more dire.
Russian forces are advancing at their fastest rate in the Donbas region for years.
With Mr Zelensky’s message that each and every Ukrainian life is precious, the 70,000 reported to have died fighting Russia is particularly painful.
The toll has only fuelled pushes from the likes of Germany, India, China and South Africa for Kyiv to reach a diplomatic conclusion.
