Kyiv has been asking to use long-range Western missiles inside Russia for so long that Moscow has already taken precautions.
It has moved bombers, missiles and some of the infrastructure that maintains them further back, away from the border with Ukraine and beyond the range of Storm Shadow.
There is scepticism among Western officials that Storm Shadow and the American Atacms will be decisive.
However, the Institute for the Study of War think tank (ISW) has identified around 225 Russian bases that would be in range of Storm Shadows fired from Ukraine.
And Sibylline’s Justin Crump says that while Russian air defences have evolved to counter the threat of Storm Shadow within Ukraine, this task will be much harder given the scope of Moscow’s territory that could now be exposed to attack.
“This will make military logistics, command and control, and air support harder to deliver, and even if Russian aircraft pull back further from Ukraine’s frontiers to avoid the missile threat they will still suffer an increase in the time and costs per sortie to the front line.”
Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Rusi think tank, believes it could also pose a dilemma for Russia as to where to position air defences, which could make it easier for Ukraine’s drones to get through.
Ultimately though, says Savill, Storm Shadow is unlikely to turn the tide. Ukraine doesn’t have many missiles, and the UK has very few left to give.
