Donald Trump may call on European and British troops to enforce an 800-mile buffer zone between the Russian and Ukrainian armies as part of a plan to freeze the war between the two countries.
Details of the plan emerged as Volodymyr Zelensky warned that any attempt to make peace by appeasing Russia would mean “suicide” for Europe.
The plan is one of several being considered by Mr Trump, who said before being elected as US president that he would start peace talks before he enters office in January.
The idea, outlined by three Trump staffers, would see the current front line frozen in place and Ukraine agreeing to shelve its ambition to join Nato for 20 years.
In exchange, the US would pump Ukraine full of weapons to deter Russia from restarting the war.
The US would neither contribute troops to patrol and enforce the resulting buffer zone nor finance its mission.
“We can do training and other support but the barrel of the gun is going to be European,” a member of Trump’s team told the Wall Street Journal.
“We are not sending American men and women to uphold peace in Ukraine. And we are not paying for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it.”
Speaking after Mr Trump’s win, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin said that it was pointless to try to pressure Russia but that Moscow was always ready to negotiate.
‘It’s not our children who are dying’
On Friday, George Osborne said it was not realistic for the UK to keep backing Ukraine without US support following Trump’s victory.
“Is it realistic to expect a complete victory for Ukraine, the complete ejection of Russia from Ukrainian territory? And if it’s not, you know, it may suit our vanity in the West to say ‘plucky Ukrainians’, [but] it’s not our children who are dying,” the former chancellor said.
“It’s also totally unrealistic, in my view, to think that Europe alone, including the UK, can go on supporting Ukraine without the support of the United States, even though Joe Biden actually is rushing to spend the $61 billion that Congress recently voted in terms of American aid for Ukraine before he leaves office.”
Ukraine has signalled that it is willing to listen to Mr Trump’s plans to end the war, but has also said it will resist any deal that would look like a Russian victory.
Speaking at a summit of European Union leaders in Budapest, Mr Zelensky said: “There should be no illusions that a just peace can be bought by showing weakness. Peace is a reward only for the strong.”
“Since the July summit of the European Political Community in Great Britain, there has been much talk about giving in to Putin, retreating, and making some ‘concessions,’” he added. “This is unacceptable for Ukraine and suicide for all of Europe.”
Europe should write its ‘own history’
Several European leaders at the summit have called for immediate increases in defence spending in response to fears that Mr Trump will cut aid to Ukraine and roll back support for Nato.
“Do we want to read the history written by others – the wars launched by Vladimir Putin, the US election, China’s technological or trade choices,” said Emmanuel Macron, the president of France. “Or do we want to write our own history. I think we have the strength to write it.”
Ursula von Der Leyen, the chief of the European Commission, said Europe must pull together in the same way it did in response to the Covid pandemic, but did not mention Mr Trump directly.
Mr Trump has never explained in detail what kind of a deal he believes can end the war.
But allies have presented various plans which proceed from the idea of freezing the current frontline.
JD Vance, the vice president-elect, suggested in September that Russia would have to hold on to its current gains as a condition of peace.
The remainder of Ukraine would stay an independent sovereign state and its side of the line would be heavily fortified to prevent a second Russian attack, he said.
In exchange, Russia would get a promise of Ukrainian neutrality.
“It doesn’t join NATO, it doesn’t join some of these sort of allied institutions,” Mr. Vance said in an interview with the Shawn Ryan Show podcast in September. “I think that’s ultimately what this looks like.”
In June Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who advised Mr Trump during his first presidency, presented him with another proposal that called for America to cut aid to Ukraine unless it entered peace talks.
Mr Zelensky has previously ruled out exchanging land for peace and says Nato membership is the only way to guarantee Russia does not re-invade.
A ceasefire that leaves Russia in control of land it has captured and does not include serious security guarantees could prove unpopular and would probably trigger elections in Ukraine.
Volodymyr Fesenko, a Ukrainian political analyst, said Ukraine would not resist American pressure for talks because of the danger of a suspension of aid.
He said the Ukrainian government might accept shelving Nato membership if it can get security guarantees akin to the US agreements with South Korea and Israel.
Russia expects ‘new territorial realities’
Putin condemned the United States on Thursday for seeking to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine and said a struggle was underway to shape a new world order as the Western-dominated post-Cold War era crumbled.
“We have come to a dangerous line,” Putin told the Valdai discussion club in the Black Sea resort of Sochi.
“The calls of the West to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, a country with the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, demonstrates the exorbitant adventurism of Western politicians,” he added.
The Kremlin has yet to comment on possible peace plans, but Russia has few incentives to make peace immediately because its forces are making steady gains on the battlefield and it believes it can sustain the economic strain of the war for at least another year.
Dmitri Trenin, a well-connected Russian political commentator and former GRU officer, said on Thursday that the Kremlin would not take seriously any plan based merely on a freezing of the current frontline.
It would also need concessions related to “the nature of the future Ukrainian regime, its military and military-economic potential, as well as the military-political status of Ukraine” as well as “new territorial realities,” he wrote in Kommersant, a Russian broadsheet.
The version of the plan Mr Trump opts for is likely to depend on his choice of cabinet.
Mike Pompeo, who served as Mr Trump’s Secretary of State during his first term and is now tipped to head the Pentagon, has criticised the Biden administration for providing too little help too slowly and is likely to resist a deal that could be interpreted as a Russian victory.
Richard Grennell, Mr Trump’s former ambassador to Berlin and envoy to the Balkans, has said he would back “autonomous” zones inside Ukraine.
That suggests a repeat of the failed Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which saw Russia try to use areas of Donbas it controlled as a trojan horse for controlling Ukrainian foreign policy.
