A top pollster has revealed the “worrying” number that shows why the Tories should fear being replaced by Reform UK.
More in Common’s Luke Tryl dug into the data after the Tory Party suffered its worst electoral defeat on July 4.
After receiving just 24 per cent of the vote, a staggering number of 2024 Conservative supporters now think it would be good for the country if the Tories were replaced by Reform UK.
The numbers suggest 31 per cent of Tory voters believe it would be a good thing for the populist party to supplant the Conservatives, with 41 per cent claiming it would be bad for Britain.
Tryl said: “The public are fairly indifferent at the prospect of the Conservatives being overtaken by Reform UK as the leading party of the right.
“As you’d expect, Reform UK voters strongly favour that sort of outcome.
“But actually what should probably worry Conservatives more is actually amongst Conservative voters it’s actually only a 10-point lead for those who say it would be bad for the UK if Reform took over as the leading party of the right.”
The data suggests Reform UK could look to build on the 4.1 million votes the populist party received on July 4.
Opinion polls already suggest Reform UK is benefitting from a post-election boost, with More in Common putting the populist party just eight-points behind the Tories on 18 per cent.
More in Common’s event on winning back voters
GB NEWS
The survey puts Reform UK in second among 18 to 24-year-olds, just 10-points behind Labour on 22 per cent.
It also suggests the post-election boost has primarily come from an eight per cent surge among 2024 Tory voters and a six-point leap among 2024 Labour voters.
Tryl also conceded that the Tories will need to win back some Reform UK voters to return to power in 2029.
However, he cautioned that Reform UK switchers could be harder to retrieve than those who backed Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Around one-in-four 2019 Tory voters sided with Nigel Farage, with around 12 per cent supporting Labour and seven per cent backing the Liberal Democrats.
But Tryl revealed that Reform UK switchers are half as likely to express a desire to go back to the Tories in 2029.
Labour voters who backed the Tories in 2019 could be the easiest to retrieve, with one-in-three expressing regrets about their decision on July 4.
The 2024 Tory Party Conference saw many fixate on how the Conservatives can return to power.
Debates have emerged on whether to pursue voters to the right or centre.
More in Common’s number crunchers claim that a “unite the right” strategy would see the Tories return 265 MPs, 12 behind Labour by the same modelling.
Keir Starmer
PA
Meanwhile, a “defend the centre” strategy would result in a “unstable” Conservative administration on just 325 MPs.
Tryl identified the type of Reform voter vulnerable to a resurgent Tory Party and even offered some words of advice to the next Conservative leader on how to win them back.
He argued that the Tories should look to win back disgruntled Conservatives followed by Labour and Liberal Democrat switchers before turning their attention to Reform UK supporters.
“The reason we’ve done the phasing in this way is because actually one of the best way to get Reform UK voters might be to show that the election is competitive again,” Tryl said.
“Once you can show that you’ve got Labour switchers back, you’ve got Conservatives re-engaged, you can say to Reform [voters] it is now a straight choice, do you want to give Keir Starmer a second term or do you want a Conservative Government?”
