The vast majority of illegal migrants originally identified for removal on asylum flights to Rwanda have gone AWOL, it has emerged.
Official documents show that only 700 of the original 5,000 people earmarked for deportation are still in “regular contact” with the Home Office.
Home Office officials suggest that only 100 to 150 of these could be detained for the first flights, depending on absconding rates. They admitted the department has “limited capability” to locate migrants once they have left Home Office accommodation.
The risk of migrants absconding, and fresh challenges by their lawyers, have been identified by officials as the biggest threats to getting them onto planes to Rwanda. It could mean officials are left with few or no people for the first flight, according to the documents.
Rishi Sunak has set a target to get the first flights off to Rwanda by the spring if he can get his Bill paving the way for deportations through Parliament.
The Bill blocks systemic legal challenges to the Rwanda policy, disapplies parts of the Human Rights Act and gives ministers powers to ignore injunctions by European judges.
However, he is facing a revolt this week by more than 50 Tory MPs who believe the legislation does not go far enough and have backed amendments to toughen it.
The documents suggest officials are operating a twin-track approach, which would aim to deport both migrants from the 5,000-strong group originally identified before last year’s Illegal Migration Act got Royal assent and those detained on arrival in the UK once the Act has been operationalised.
Some insiders believe officials should prioritise the new arrivals because it would have the biggest deterrent effect if migrants knew they were going to be detained for deportation to Rwanda as soon as they landed in the UK .
However, the documents set out a detailed risk register that the Government will face in its attempts to get the first flight off. Flights have been grounded since June 2022, when the European Court of Human Rights issued an 11th hour Rule 39 injunction to block the first.
The register says the first risk is that Home Office officials do not locate or detain enough migrants and face legal challenges, meaning they have “few/none” for a flight to Rwanda.
The second identifies the tricky logistics of transferring migrants from immigration removal centres to the airfield, which could be disrupted by protests, bad weather conditions or commercial contractors responsible for the flight or escorting the asylum seekers refusing to do the job.
It has been reported that the Home Office is seeking to use Ministry of Defence planes as a contingency, although the military is said to be resisting the move.
The third risk is of Rwanda not being ready for arrivals, including a lack of legal representation and support for deported migrants or an inadequate service.
The document suggests this could result in migrants being returned to the UK although the new treaty with Rwanda, signed last month, aims to plug those gaps by bolstering the Rwandan legal system with additional expert judges and training.
“High risk” threats to flights are listed as an increased numbers of migrants absconding before they are placed in detention for deportation, meaning the first flight could be delayed if there are insufficient numbers.
The second is Rule 39 injunctions imposed by the European Court of Human Rights, which could see migrants bailed and insufficient numbers left in detention for flights.
