Since Nigel Farage stepped back into front-line politics the Reform UK party have seen a rise in the polls and a place on the map at the expense of the Conservatives.
New in-depth seat projections from pollsters YouGov show Reform UK ahead in five constituencies all previously held by the Tories.
This is YouGov’s second MRP of the July 2024 election campaign, but the first since Farage took the reigns as leader of Reform UK.
For the Conservatives, things have got worse as the model projects the party’s lowest seat total in its history.
This map of estimated seat projections shows Reform taking five constituencies in England
YouGov
The data shows the Tories picking up only 108 seats if the election were held today, down 32 from two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the Labour Party are on course to win a record-breaking number of seats sitting at 425, up by 125 on their 2019 total.
The new model also shows Reform UK’s increased vote share could transfer into five seats gained from the Conservatives.
This includes Clacton, where Farage is standing comfortably ahead of the second-place Conservatives at 45 per cent, compared to 25 per cent for the Tories.
Four other areas including Ashfield, Great Yarmouth, Louth and Horncastle, and Basildon and Billericay are all tossups with Reform slightly ahead.
This graph contrasts the 2019 general election outcome and YouGov’s MRP seat projection
YouGov
Reform UK are also in second place in 127 other seats and although most of these are safe or likely Labour seats, four seats could be up for grabs.
These include Barnsley North where Labour are only just ahead and in South Holland and The Deepings, Havant, and Folkestone and Hythe, where the Tories and Labour are joint.
Meanwhile, the MRP model shows the Liberal Democrats have moved up by almost 20 seats to a total of 67.
This would represent their best ever performance at a British general election.
The SNP have closed the gap on Labour in Scotland by three seats, however, Labour are still expected to become the largest party in Scotland.
The Labour Party are on course to win a record-breaking number of seats sitting at 425, up by 125 on their 2019 total
PA
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The SNP could lose their stronghold in Scotland by dropping 28 seats bringing them down to 20 and Labour gaining 27, bringing them to 28 total seats.
The MRP model used by YouGov estimates the relationship between voters’ characteristics and their vote intention.
It then uses constituency-level data to project seat outcomes if the election were held now and based on the voters who live there.
For this model, the names of the actual candidates in each constituency were included in survey questions which was not the case in the previous model.
