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The 48 seats that could cost Reform UK the election as Tories continue to surge

By 5 Mins Read
The 48 seats that could cost Reform UK the election as Tories continue to surge

New polling has suggested Reform UK will fall short of being able to form a Government on their own, with 48 seats identified as places where the Tories will narrowly beat Nigel Farage’s party.

The analysis, by former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Ashcroft, has Kemi Badenoch’s party on 22 per cent, up from 20 per cent a month ago, with Reform dropping to 25 per cent.

In further woes for Labour, Sir Keir Starmer’s party drop to fourth place on 18 per cent, one point behind the Green Party who leapfrog into third.

The Liberal Democrats are stuck in dead last place on 10 per cent, meaning Labour may have to rely on Zack Polanski and Sir Ed Davey’s parties, as well as the SNP and Plaid Cymru to prop up a potential left-wing Government.

In a another blow for Reform, when asked if Nigel Farage has enough talented people to form an administration within Reform UK, only 17 per cent thought that he did, while 60 per cent did not.

Using the Electoral Calculus election predictor, GB News has worked out Reform would be short 43 seats of a majority.

Theoretically, this would mean Nigel Farage would have to do a deal with Kemi Badenoch, a suggestion floated by Deputy Tory Chairman Matt Vickers.

Mr Vickers had denied the plans when asked by Sky News over the weekend whether he would consider a pact to “unite the Right”.

However when pressed if the Tories would “lumber the nation with another five years of Starmer”, Mr Vickers, the MP for Stockton West, suggested the position could change closer to polling day.

He said: “Well, if I’m wrong and we’re stuck in that situation, you can come back and ask me then, but I’m going to concentrate on delivering that Conservative majority.”

Here are the places where Nigel Farage’s party will finish a close second to the Tories

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GB News has taken a look at the seats where, according to the Electoral Calculus predictor, the Tories would win but Reform UK fall within five per cent.

Anglia

  • Welwyn Hatfield – Current MP: Andrew Lewin (Labour)
  • Norfolk South – Current MP: Ben Goldsborough (Labour)
  • Hertford and Stortford – Current MP: Josh Dean (Labour)
  • Huntingdon – Current MP: Benjamin Obese-Jecty (Conservative)
  • Mid Bedfordshire – Current MP: Blake Stephenson (Conservative)
  • Ely and East Cambridgeshire – Current MP: Charlotte Cane (Liberal Democrat)
  • Hertfordshire South West – Current MP: Gagan Mohindra (Conservative)
  • Chelmsford – Current MP: Marie Goldman (Liberal Democrat)

These are the seats where Kemi Badenoch’s party will win narrowly over Reform

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Yorkshire, North East & North West

  • Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland – Current MP: Luke Myer (Labour)
  • Macclesfield – Current MP: Tim Roca (Labour)
  • Keighley and Ilkley – Current MP: Robbie Moore (Conservative)
  • Skipton and Ripon – Current MP: Sir Julian Smith (Conservative)
  • Richmond and Northallerton – Current MP: Rishi Sunak (Conservative)

Wales

  • Vale of Glamorgan – Current MP: Kanishka Narayan (Labour)
  • Clwyd East – Current MP: Becky Gittins (Labour)

East Midlands & West Midlands

  • Solihull West and Shirley – Current MP: Neil Shastri-Hurst (Conservative)
  • Meriden and Solihull East – Current MP: Saqib Bhatti (Conservative)
  • Droitwich and Evesham – Current MP: Nigel Huddleston (Conservative)
  • Harborough, Oadby and Wigston – Current MP: Neil O’Brien (Conservative)
  • Newark – Current MP: Robert Jenrick (Conservative)
  • Rutland and Stamford – Current MP: Alicia Kearns (Conservative)

Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to narrowly hold on to his Richmond and Northallerton seat

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South West

  • Somerset North East and Hanham – Current MP: Dan Norris (Independent)
  • Bournemouth East – Current MP: Tom Hayes (Labour)
  • Devon Central – Current MP: Sir Mel Stride (Conservative)
  • Devon South West – Current MP: Rebecca Smith (Conservative)
  • Wiltshire East – Current MP: Danny Kruger (Reform UK)
  • Tewkesbury – Current MP: Cameron Thomas (Liberal Democrat)
  • Melksham and Devizes – Current MP: Brian Mathew (Liberal Democrat)
  • Christchurch – Current MP: Sir Christopher Chope (Conservative)
  • Dorset North – Current MP: Simon Hoare (Conservative)

London & South East

  • Croydon East – Current MP: Natasha Dawn Irons (Labour)
  • Bromley and Biggin Hill – Current MP: Peter Fortune (Conservative)
  • Old Bexley and Sidcup – Current MP: Louie French (Conservative)
  • Milton Keynes Central – Current MP: Emily Darlington (Labour)
  • Milton Keynes North – Current MP: Chris Curtis (Labour)
  • Banbury – Current MP: Sean Woodcock (Labour)
  • Reading West and Mid Berkshire – Current MP: Olivia Bailey (Labour)
  • Basingstoke – Current MP: Luke Murphy (Labour)
  • Reigate – Current MP: Rebecca Paul (Conservative)
  • Aylesbury – Current MP: Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith (Labour)
  • Didcot and Wantage – Current MP: Olly Glover (Liberal Democrat)
  • Hampshire North West – Current MP: Kit Malthouse (Conservative)
  • Eastleigh – Current MP: Liz Jarvis (Liberal Democrat)
  • New Forest West – Current MP: Desmond Swayne (Conservative)
  • Fareham and Waterlooville – Current MP: Suella Braverman (Conservative)
  • New Forest East – Current MP: Sir Julian Lewis (Conservative)
  • Weald of Kent – Current MP: Katie Lam (Conservative)
  • Sevenoaks – Current MP: Laura Trott (Conservative)

Sir Mel Stride is set to hold on to his Devon seat

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Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake has suggested he would be willing to negotiate with Nigel Farage’s party if the Tories were left with no other choice after an election.

He told The Telegraph: “I am no Lib Dem and Kemi Badenoch is no Lib Dem.

“If that was my only choice, of course I would choose Reform.”

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