Reform UK poses a disproportionate threat to Labour in seats with the highest proportion of smokers, analysis conducted by GB News has revealed.
Sir Keir Starmer is expected to instruct Health Secretary Wes Streeting to water down plans to ban smoking in beer gardens, instead restricting prohibition to outside hospitals and schools.
The anticipated U-turn comes after industry chiefs warned three pubs could close a week after the draconian crackdown.
However, GB News also revealed that Nigel Farage was tipped to pounce on the “insane” policy after an opinion poll showed the public opposed the Prime Minister’s proposal.
A map showing seats with the highest number of smokers
GB NEWS
After Starmer’s right-hand man Morgan McSweeney warned Labour MPs about the threat from Reform UK in the so-called Red Wall, the People’s Channel can explain how the populist party might have spooked the Prime Minister into watering down his plan.
Data compiled by the Office of National Statistics shows 73 Anglo-Welsh seats are covered by local authorities where more than 16 per cent of residents smoke.
The figure is above the average in England and Wales, which stands at 11.6 per cent and 12.6 per cent respectively.
Despite only two seats – Boston & Skegness and Great Yarmouth – voting for Reform UK, Reform UK finished second in a further 25, with all but two of those electing a Labour MP on July 4.
Reform UK’s average vote share across all the seats, besides the uncontested constituencies of Chorley and Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney, stood at 19.5 per cent.
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The populist party’s support sneaked up to 20.6 per cent in Labour-held seats, hitting 21.1 per cent in Brexit-backing constituencies won by Starmer.
The data shows Reform UK support in seats which still contain a large number of smokers far exceeds the 14.4 per cent polled on July 4.
Angela Rayner, who has been photographed smoking more than once, appeared electorally vulnerable.
Reform UK finished second in Ashton-under-Lyne, raking in 24.8 per cent of the vote, while 18.4 per cent of Tameside residents smoke.
Blackpool, which is now home to a Reform UK councillor following a by-election, was the highest-ranking Labour area for smokers.
Angela Rayner, who has been photographed smoking more than once, appeared electorally vulnerable.
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Smokers make up 21.3 per cent of the population, with Reform UK’s support across the two constituencies standing at 23.7 per cent and 28.6 per cent respectively.
Kingston-upon-Hull’s three constituencies all saw Reform UK put up strong runner-up performances and are also home to a high number of smokers, with the figure marginally exceeding 20 per cent.
Farage, who is often snapped enjoying a fag down the pub with a pint in hand, is among those leading the charge against the proposed ban.
The Reform UK leader labelled smokers the “heroes of the nation” and vowed to “never go to the pub again if outdoor smoking is banned”.
He is also echoing concerns about the impact of banning smoking outside pubs on the hospitality sector, with the latest crackdown estimated to force almost 6,000 pubs to close.
As for how Reform UK could capitalise on the unpopular ban, a former insider from the populist party told GB News: “Labour are so out of touch with voters across the Red Wall that Farage and Reform have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to smash the two-party system.
“Penalising hard-working Brits for enjoying a fag, or a pint, or fast food, is the kind of snobbish paternalism that drives voters insane.
“If they had their act together, Reform would be easily able to make hay out of the growing frustration out there.
“Not just on the ridiculous smoking ban, but on net zero, immigration, and woke nonsense. However, whether the new chairman has the wherewithal to actually seize this opportunity remains to be seen.”
A former No10 source also suggested the Tories would struggle to benefit from disaffection with Labour’s nanny-state policies.
Wes Streeting
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“Reform should be licking their lips ahead of the Local Elections when they see Labour veering off road and away from people’s priorities with nanny state policies like this,” they said.
“Whoever leads the Conservative Party will be dead against such measures. But in the meantime, this is only going to send common sense voters over to Reform.”
Despite last night’s report in The Sun suggesting Labour will soon water down its smoking ban, Streeting recently pledged to introduce a “more ambitious” bill than the previous Conservative Government.
He said: “When the smoking bill is introduced, it will be more ambitious than the bill introduced by the previous government, and crucially, it will mean that children growing up in our country today will be the first ever smoke-free generation.”
Starmer also claimed “nanny state” measures were sometimes necessary to ensure the British public remained healthy.
However, reiterating Reform UK’s opposition to the smoking ban, a spokesman for the populist party said: “Reform will always support the rights of the individual and champion personal freedom.
“The current proposals by this Labour Government would be disastrous for publicans across the country.
“Reform UK will always support our pubs and ensure they have the ability to survive.”
