With a team made up largely of part-time and amateur players, the expectation was that Portugal would be cannon fodder in last year’s Rugby World Cup.
Captained by Tomas Appleton, a man who runs his own dental clinic in Lisbon when he’s not playing rugby for the national team, they were expected to be chewed up and spat out.
‘Rugby doesn’t pay the bills in Portugal,’ noted Appleton prior to the World Cup, the centre who will once again lead Portugal out at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Yet, pitched into one of the toughest pools in the tournament alongside Wales, Australia, Fiji and Georgia, the Portuguese weren’t as toothless as many had expected.
They beat Fiji 24-23 in their final match in what was one of the biggest shocks in tournament history. They drew 18-18 against Georgia, a team long championed for inclusion in the Six Nations.
They gave a decent account of themselves in defeats to Wales and Australia and would eventually finish above Georgia in the final standings in Pool C.
Stafford McDowall will captain a Scotland side who insist they won’t take Portugal lightly
But Portugal have faltered slightly since the World Cup. Inconsistent and unreliable, they have won just two of their last five matches.
They have lost to teams like Belgium and the USA since that World Cup journey in France a year ago.
Even against Scotland’s second-string at Murrayfield, the expectation is that they will be blown away.
For Scotland, that’s the nub of it. Up against such limited opposition, Gregor Townsend’s men are essentially on a hiding to nothing.
Win by 30 or 40 points and it’ll be job done. Anything less, questions will be asked. That’s just the reality of a match like this.
When the Portuguese national football team played Scotland at Hampden last month, Cristiano Ronaldo was mobbed by young fans desperate for a selfie and an autograph.
Their rugby counterparts come with somewhat less fanfare. There are several players who would scarcely even be a household name in their own house.
Currently No 15 in the world rankings, anything other than an emphatic victory over Os Lobos — ‘The Wolves’ —would see Scotland’s Autumn Series campaign go to the dogs.
Darcy Graham is likely to be the most senior player in Scotland’s starting XV at Murrayfield
Gregor Townsend and his players know they will be on a hiding to nothing against Portugal
Townsend has opted for wholesale changes. Making 14 changes from the team which lost to South Africa last weekend, only Tom Jordan retains his place at full-back.
It would have been a clean sweep of 15 changes had Harry Paterson not picked up an injury in training during the week.
Townsend sees this as an opportunity to build depth. It is a chance for some of Scotland’s fringe players to emerge from the shadows and take centre stage.
This isn’t even Scotland’s B team. In some positions, especially in the forwards, it’s probably closer to their C team.
It’s an opportunity for squad players to stake a claim, for young talents to raise their hand. None more so than young back-rower Freddy Douglas.
At 19, Douglas could become Scotland’s youngest player in over 60 years if he comes off the bench.
Earlier this week, Scotland forwards coach John Dalziel claimed that Douglas is ‘already world-class’.
That was a fairly wild assessment of a young man who has yet to play a senior game at professional level, but it’s clear that Douglas is rated very highly.
Stafford McDowall will captain the team at centre and spoke yesterday about the fearless attitude shown by Douglas in training.
Scotland clearly view him as the next big thing. This will be a chance for the teenage back-rower to get his teeth stuck into Test rugby when he comes off the bench.
McDowall was also adamant yesterday that Scotland won’t be taking Portugal lightly, but that was just diplomacy as much as anything.
Digging into some of the numbers, it becomes clear just how much of a step up this will be for the minnows.
Portugal have won just one of their previous 20 Tests against current Tier One nations (D1 L18).
That was a 9-6 win against Italy in 1973. Since then, they have lost 15 games against Tier One teams by an average margin of 38 points.
Clearly, the expectation will be on Scotland to pile on the points in a similar fashion. If the unthinkable were to happen, it would be one of the darkest days in the history of Scottish rugby.
George Horne will be asked to inject the necessary zip and tempo into Scotland’s attack at scrum-half.
Incredibly, at 29 years of age, and with over 30 caps under his belt, this will be the first time Horne has started a Test match at Murrayfield.
Despite clearly being the form nine at domestic level in Scotland, helping Glasgow to win last season’s URC, Townsend still seems reluctant to put his full trust in Horne from the start.
Ali Price was bizarrely selected ahead of him for the Fiji game a couple of weeks ago, whilst Toulon’s Ben White remains the clear first-choice.
A player who excels with quick ball and when playing on the front foot, don’t be surprised if Horne has a strong performance and bags a couple of tries today.
Likewise Darcy Graham, who is probably the most senior player to be included in Townsend’s starting XV.
If Scotland take care of business, Graham could well finish with another bucketload of tries, adding to the four he scored against Fiji a fortnight ago.
This will be Portugal’s first ever Test match away from home against a Tier One nation, with Scottish Rugby hopeful they can attract a crowd somewhere close to 60,000.
It almost certainly won’t be sold out, even with walk-up tickets still available. Plainly, trying to sell a game like this, these are the weeks when the marketing folk really earn their money.
Speaking of money, the SRU’s latest annual accounts were released earlier this week and showed a loss of £11.3million over the last year.
That number was concerning enough in itself. But the number that really leapt from the page in the annual report was the £887,000 paid to former chief executive Mark Dodson.
Despite only working around eight months of the year before essentially being put on gardening leave prior to his departure in the summer, Dodson’s money was up on the £676,000 he received the previous year.
The figure paid to him was reflective of both salary and his severance package. A figure who allowed costs to spiral out of all control, whilst rarely covering himself in glory during various PR disasters, the SRU are well clear of Dodson.
Yet, whilst it is only natural that there should be such moral outrage at such a discredited figure continuing to rinse money from the business, that somewhat misses the point.
Dodson is only being paid what is contractually owed to him. In his position, who wouldn’t do the same?
The real failure was the way in which he was given carte blanche to do as he pleased for so many years, whilst having his contract continually extended.
But that’s all by the by. Scotland have a game to focus on this afternoon. Against a Portugal team whom many viewed as a coming force in international rugby only a year ago, they will be expected to turn on the style.
It won’t erase the pain or disappointment of what happened against South Africa a week ago. That was a huge missed opportunity.
But Scotland can only beat what’s in front of them, before a seemingly rejuvenated Wallabies side visit Murrayfield next weekend in the final Autumn Test.
That match already looks like it could be the key to a successful campaign. Portugal, for all the respect and diplomacy, should be blown away with minimal fuss.
