Russia is scrambling to reinforce its bases in Libya as it faces being thrown out of Syria, its other foothold in the Mediterranean.
Flight data show at least three Russian military cargo planes have flown from Belarus to Libya since Dec 8, the day the Russian-allied Assad regime in Syria was toppled by Islamist-led rebels.
The most recent flight landed in Benghazi, Libya, early on Saturday morning, according to data from FlightRadar24, a real-time flight tracking website.
Experts believe that Russia is moving defence materials stockpiled in Belarus, its closest ally, to Libya, where it is rapidly increasing its military presence in response to the rebel seizure of Damascus.
“The challenges in Syria seem to be pushing Russia to ramp up its presence in eastern Libya, even if that wasn’t part of its original plan just weeks ago,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a North Africa specialist and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a defence think tank based in London.
Moscow is likely worried that its growing footprint in Libya is becoming “more exposed and vulnerable there, prompting a logical step: send in more material to protect your newly-expanded presence”, he added.
In 2024, Russia refurbished runways and built new facilities at its Libyan air bases, allowing it to project power along the southern Mediterranean coast.
Libya also acts as a key staging post for the Kremlin’s efforts to expand its influence in Africa.
The civil war-ravaged nation is the only country on the African continent with a Russian military presence that can be flown to direct from Russia without refuelling.
Coupled with its long-time presence in the strategic Syrian port cities of Tartus and Latakia, Moscow had looked set to flex even more military might in the region – until Assad’s regime collapsed last Sunday.
With Assad gone, Russian forces now face an uncertain future in Syria, where its former rebel enemies are in the process of setting up a new government.
Syria is scarred by years of brutal Russian attacks, in which the Kremlin bombarded opposition-held areas of the country in an attempt to prop up the Assad government.
Moscow has begun to evacuate its hardware and personnel from Syria, while senior officials seek to hammer out a deal with the new leadership that would see it retain its bases in the country.
It admitted on Sunday it had “withdrawn” some of its diplomatic staff from Syria on a special flight from its Hmeimim air base near Latakia.
A Libya-bound cargo plane left the Hmeimim base the day before, according to a Syrian security official. More departures are expected in the coming days.
Russian troops have been filmed packing up an S-400 air defence missile system in Latakia, and armoured trucks have been seen lining up in Syrian streets preparing to evacuate positions.
Mr Harchaoui said: “Even if Russia maintains its core bases in Syria – its naval facility at Tartus and its air base near Latakia – recent events there have obviously not been in Moscow’s favour.
“The upheaval makes Syria a more hostile environment for the Russian military, if only logistically, leaving it unable to stay there with the same level of comfort and security as before,” he added.
