Russia is close to securing a deal to retain control of two military bases in Syria following talks with rebels who overthrew dictator Bashar Al-Assad last week, officials close to the Kremlin believe.
Sources in Moscow, Europe and the Middle East said the Kremlin believed it had an “informal understanding” that it could keep control of the bases.
One source cautioned that the deal was tenuous and “could still change amid the instability in Syria”, Bloomberg reported.
Neither the Kremlin nor the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which defeated Assad, has commented. However, Turkey is a backer of HTS and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, is on good terms with Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s two bases – the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base – are considered vital to the Kremlin’s plans to project force, power and prestige across the Mediterranean Sea and into Africa.
Russian foreign ministry officials have said they are focused on “ensuring the safety of Russian citizens and assets in Syria”.
Satellite images have shown that Russia has, at least temporarily, abandoned its Tartus naval base in Syria since HTS fighters marched into Damascus virtually unopposed on Sunday.
Five Russian warships, including three frigates and at least one submarine, were photographed in Tartus port last week but had left by Monday.
The warships were in a holding pattern 10 miles off the Syrian coast, out of range of rebel artillery and drone attacks, images released by US-based Maxar showed.
MarineTraffic data also showed no ship had docked at or left Tartus since Monday.
Moscow has not commented, but well-connected military bloggers and propagandists confirmed the Kremlin had withdrawn its warship from Tartus.
Sources have also said that Moscow withdrew its warplanes from the Khmeimim Air Base, 75 miles north of Tartus, while it opened negotiations with HTS commanders.
Anastasia Kashevarova, a pro-war Russian propagandist, told her 250,000 Telegram followers that rebel fighters had surrounded Russia’s bases in Syria.
“Currently, negotiations on Syria are underway between Russia, Turkey, Iran and others,” she said. “The issue of Russian military bases in Syria is open.”
Putin is desperate to retain control of its military bases in Syria, where Moscow intervened to prop up Assad during the civil war in 2015.
The Tartus Naval Base has been the lynchpin for Russia’s operations in the Mediterranean Sea and across Africa. It is the only naval base in the region that the Kremlin independently controls and has been its main “replenishment and repair” centre.
Analysts have said that the Kremlin had also maintained a “well-armed naval squadron” at Tartus.
Built by the Soviet Union in 1971, Putin expanded Tartus in 2015 after his intervention in Syria to challenge the West in Africa, where he has since encouraged a series of coups by client rebel commanders and deployed mercenaries.
The Khmeimim Air Base played an important role in defeating rebels in 2015. Russian forces launched carpet bombing missions from the base, killing thousands of civilians and destroying rebel positions.
Kremlin blames Assad
And on Sunday, the Khmeimim Air Base was at the centre of a Russian plan to spirit Assad out of Syria.
Russian intelligence officers persuaded Assad to flee to Moscow from Damascus.
He flew out of Damascus on a private jet, switched off the tracking devices and headed to the Khmeimim Air Base. From there he flew to Moscow, possibly on a Russian military plane.
The Kremlin has blamed Assad’s forces for the collapse of his regime.
On a visit to China, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and deputy head of its security council, blamed the “ineffective” Syrian Army for the collapse of Assad’s regime.
“Support [from Russia] was effective,” he said. “[But] there are very few expectations now that the unity of Syria will be preserved.”
Mr Medvedev’s comments match the main commentary coming out of Russia that without Assad and his Russian and Iranian allies to impose control, Syria will slide into a civil war and become a breeding ground for hardcore Islamic militants.
