Reform UK is just six points away from becoming Britain’s biggest party, according to bombshell polling analysis.
The right-wing party could overtake both Labour and the Conservatives in Parliament if current trends continue, Electoral Calculus figures suggest.
The results, published on Saturday, indicate Nigel Farage’s party is on track to make unprecedented gains in the Commons.
Support for Labour and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has been collapsing, with a significant slump in the Labour leader’s personal popularity rating.
Nigel Farage’s party could overtake Labour in the polls
PA
Electoral Calculus analysis shows Reform UK could reach 28 per cent of the popular vote within six months if it continues to gain support at its current rate.
The party would need to secure 31 per cent of the vote to win a majority and for Farage to become Prime Minister.
This comes as Reform UK’s membership has surged, with chairman Zia Yusuf announcing that more than 46,000 people joined the party in the last two weeks of December alone.
Current polling puts Reform UK on 21.9 per cent, up from 14.7 per cent at the election last July. The Conservatives have seen minimal change, moving from 24.4 per cent to 24.5 per cent.
In terms of seats, Labour would still hold the largest number with 310, while the Conservatives would have 176.
Reform UK would secure 36 seats, behind the Liberal Democrats with 71 but ahead of the Greens, who would remain on four MPs.
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Zia Yusuf announced that more than 46,000 people joined the party in the last two weeks of December alone
REFORM UK
Professor of political science at Manchester University Robert Ford explains that Labour’s decline is historically significant.
“Six months after Labour’s biggest landslide in a generation, the new government is already in the mire,” he told The Guardian.
He noted that Labour’s seven-point decline since the election has been exceeded only once in the past four decades.
The professor highlighted that no government with a large majority has ever started with a lower share of the electorate.
“Never before have so many MPs had to worry so early about their future prospects,” he added.
Reform UK’s surge comes amid an ongoing spat with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch over membership figures.
Farage has vowed to target Badenoch’s North West Essex constituency after she claimed the party’s membership counter was “fake”.
“You had your chance to apologise. Well now the gloves are off,” Farage declared at a recent party conference in Chelmsford.
