Today is Reform UK’s final chance to land an electoral blow to Labour in 2025 as Nigel Farage’s party eyes a huge upset.
With a General Election not due until 2029, and elections in Scotland and Wales not due until 2026, Reform is limited to local elections to make electoral inroads at the expense of the mainstream parties.
The populist party has been enjoying record polling in the last few weeks, with several respected pollsters putting Farage’s party above 20 per cent nationally.
One poll even put Reform ahead of Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives and just one point behind Labour.
This is why Reform will be relishing elections of any sort, including the three due today which represent the final time British voters will go to the polls in 2024.
They are the council by-elections of Brockmoor and Pensnett in Dudley (West Midlands) West Thamesmead in Greenwich (London) and Milton Regis in Swale (Kent).
Labour is defending all three wards, and it looks a tough ask to overturn their healthy majorities.
In 2022, 62 per cent of votes went to Labour in West Thamesmead. In 2023, 58 per cent went to Labour in Milton Regis and most recently in 2024, 64 per cent of votes went Labour’s way in Brockmoor and Pensnett.
But none of these elections had a Reform candidate in the mix. Add to that the fact council by-elections are wildly volatile and often used as an opportunity to vent frustration with the incumbent Westminster government, Reform will be eyeing an upset.
Of the three elections, it is the one in Brockmoor and Pensnett that Reform has the best chance of overturning.
Richard Tasker is standing for Farage’s party, having defected from the Conservatives. He has lost his previous five attempts at becoming a councillor.
The election for the parliamentary seat of Dudley (within which is Brockmoor and Pensnett) gives an indication of Reform support in the area.
Reform came a close third in July. Their haul of 9,442 votes was only 873 behind the Conservatives and 2,773 behind eventual winners Labour.
The next best chance for Reform is the by election for Milton Regis in Kent.
The ward falls within the parliamentary constituency of Sittingbourne and Sheppey, a Conservative stronghold since 2005.
But in July 2024 Labour overturned a 24,000 majority to beat the Tories by 355 votes. This was largely thanks to Reform hoovering up 10,512 votes, most of which would have been destined for the Conservatives.
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Council by-elections since July GE
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Easily the toughest ward to overturn today will be West Thamesmead. Located in the Erith and Thamesmead Westminster constituency, Labour dominated in July winning a 16,302 majority.
Reform UK did beat the Tories into second, but it is highly unlikely the party will muster enough support to overturn Labour in the east London ward.
Despite winning a thumping majority just five months ago, Labour has suffered a net loss of 25 council seats since July with their aggregate vote share crashing 8.5 per cent.
In what is an extraordinary turnaround for a party who just suffered their worst electoral result in history, the Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 23 seats.
Reform have won six seats, enjoying the largest bump in vote share (up 7.2 per cent).
Polls for all three wards close at 10am today with results expected Friday morning.
