Reform UK have prompted a Tory “collapse” with Rishi Sunak’s party suffering in some of the country’s most pro-Brexit areas, pollster Matt Goodwin has deciphered from his thorough post-election analysis.
It was a bruising night for the Conservatives who suffered a historic defeat, and Nigel Farage’s insurgent party played a key role.
Speaking on GB News, Goodwin explained how Reform were able to wreak havoc for Sunak and claimed the party will feel emboldened in its quest to target Labour seats in the future.
“The Conservatives have basically collapsed in some of the most pro-Brexit parts of the country”, he said.
Matt Goodwin has explained where it all went wrong for the Tories
GB NEWS
“If you look at the less Brexit-y seats, the Conservative share has gone down by 12 points, but get this, it has gone down by nearly 30 points in the most pro-Brexit seats.
“So what has happened in those areas is that Boris Johnson coalition, those working class voters, older voters and culturally Conservative voters who are very sceptical about mass immigration, basically Reform have stormed through those areas.
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Matt Goodwin has discussed Reform’s success
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“They have cost the Conservatives seats. If you put the margin of defeat for Conservatives, it’s smaller than the vote for Reform in about 180 seats.
“That shows you the scale of damage Nigel Farage has done. They have caused all this damage to the Conservatives while also finishing second in a large swathe of Labour seats.”
While Labour have been able to benefit from Reform prising away Conservative voters, Goodwin insists it’s not all rosy for Sir Keir Starmer.
He says the next election could see Reform eating into the hefty chunk of Labour-held seats, starting at potential by-elections that could pop up in the meantime.
“If there is by-elections, Farage is probably going to end up winning quite a lot of those”, he said.
“At local elections, if he is organised, he is probably going to end up doing quite well there as well.
“In some ways, Starmer is sort of being constrained by Reform a bit. Even know, Labour HQ will be thinking ‘we have to be careful on these issue of migration and the borders, we can’t ignore what is happening in the heartlands’.”
Farage won a seat in the Commons at the eighth time of asking with the people of Clacton voting him in as their local MP.
In his victory speech, the 60-year-old said Reform would continue to “shock” after it won four seats in one of the election’s biggest storylines.
The number of seats did not paint the full picture of Reform’s success, with the insurgent party picking up the third-largest vote share.
