Reform UK swept up 14 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election securing the third-largest vote out of all UK parties despite only being formed within the past few years.
The party, led by Nigel Farage came behind the Labour Party’s 34 per cent and the Conservative Party’s 24 per cent but gained just five seats due to the first-past-the-post system.
Now, the populist party is focusing on the local elections.
In a letter to activists in the bastion of populist politics, Reform UK’s East of England branch said: “Our immediate focus is the Local Elections in May 2025, whether they are County Council elections or Borough/District Council we need as many Candidates as possible to stand for Reform UK.”
Data shows Reform UK could pick up county council seats in Essex, Norfolk, Lincolnshire and Nottinghamshire to name a few.
The Isle of Wight and Carmarthenshire could also deliver a Reform UK tidal wave as both areas witnessed a surge of support on July 4.
Listed below are the wards – the technical term for neighbourhoods – in different counties which could see a rise in Reform council seats.
Wards can cover as little as a few thousand voters or up to ten thousand or more and refer to the boundaries used to elect local councillors.
A model by Britain Elects breaks down how Britain voted in the general election by ward, suggesting how each neighbourhood would vote in a local election.
Essex
In Essex, several towns are expected to see certain neighbourhoods vote for reform in the next UK local elections including Clacton, South Basildon and East Thurrock, Basildon and Billericay, Castle Point and Maldon.
In Nigel Farage’s constituency of Clacton, the following wards would see Reform UK come out on top: The Bentleys & Frating, Weeley & Tendring, St Osyth, West Clacton & Jaywick Sands, Bluehouse, St James, Coppins, Cann Hall, Pier, St Paul’s, St John’s, Eastcliff, St Bartholomew’s, Burrsville, Little Clacton, Thorpe, Beaumont & Great Holland, The Oakleys & Wix, Frinton, Kirby Cross, Kirby-le-Soken & Hamford, Homelands, Walton, Thorpe, Beaumont & Great Holland.
In South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform could win in East Tilbury, Stanford-le-Hope West, Stanford East and Corringham Town, Corringham and Fobbing and Langdon Hills.
In Basildon and Billericay, Vange could see a Reform win and the same goes for Maldon East in Maldon and Canvey Island Central and Canvey Island Winter Gardens in Castle Point.
In Essex, several towns are expected to see certain neighbourhoods vote for reform in the next UK local elections including Clacton
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Norfolk
The seaside town of Great Yarmouth in Norfolk is expected to elect Reform councillors in Lothingland, Bradwell South and Hopton, Gorleston, Magdalen, Bradwell North, Claydon, Caister South, Fleggburgh, Caister North, Ormesby, West Flegg and East Flegg.
Lincolnshire
In Boston and Skegness in Lincolnshire, Reform is set to win in the following wards: Kirton and Frampton, Wyberton, Fishtoft, St Thomas, Staniland, Station, Fenside, Skirbeck, Trinity, Witham, Coastal, Friskney, Scarbrough and Seacroft, Burgh le Marsh, St Clement’s, Winthorpe, Ingoldmells, Chapel St Leonards and Willoughby with Sloothby.
Nottinghamshire
In Lee Anderson’s Ashfield constituency, the following neighbourhoods are expected to vote Reform: Annesley & Kirkby Woodhouse, Underwood, Jacksdale & Westwood, Selston, Kingsway, Kirkby Cross & Portland, Larwood, Huthwaite & Brierley, Abbey Hill, Sutton Junction & Harlow Wood, Sutton Central & New Cross, Carsic, Skegby, The Dales, Stanton Hill & Teversal, Sutton St Mary’s, Leamington and Ashfields, Greenwood & Summit.
Isle of Wight East
Ryde South East in Ryde, the English seaside town and civil parish on the north-east coast of the Isle of Wight, is expected to elect a Reform councillor.
Lincolnshire
In Gainsborough in Lincolnshire, the ward Gainsborough East is expected to take on a win from Reform.
Kent
In the Sittingbourne and Sheppey constituency in Kent, Reform is expected to take a win in Sheppey Central.
Hampshire
In Havant, a town in the south-east corner of Hampshire, Reform could see a win in Battins.
Carmarthenshire
Llanelli, a market town and community in Carmarthenshire and the preserved county of Dyfed in Wales, could see wins for Reform in Bigyn and Glanymor.
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The model for these results employs demographic data and also relies to a limited degree on historic local election results.
The results are based on estimates of who won in each ward in the 2024 General Election in July, which are being used to predict who could win in local elections in the coming years.
In the 2024 local election earlier this year, Reform UK underperformed gaining just two seats, both in Havant, as it fielded candidates in just 12 per cent of wards.
Reform UK only put up 323 candidates out of 2,655 contested wards, which is well below the 1,646 fielded by the Green Party.
