Manchester City are being backed as firm favourites for a second Champions League trophy, with Opta’s supercomputer giving Pep Guardiola’s side a whopping 25 per cent chance of winning the competition.
The stats boffins have been crunching the numbers and running the algorithms ahead of this year’s new-look format and have spat out a comprehensive set of predictions on where each European powerhouse will finish.
The Premier League champions have been judged to finish in the semi-finals in more than half of the scenarios (55 per cent) and, at 95.2 per cent, are almost guaranteed to make it out the league stage.
They pip last year’s victors Real Madrid to the title with England star Jude Bellingham set to miss out on consecutive wins.
Perhaps surprisingly, Italian side Inter are third favourites with a 58.6 per cent chance of making the quarter-finals and a handy 10.9 per cent chance of taking home the trophy.
Manchester City are being backed as firm favourites for a second Champions League trophy
They pip last year’s victors Real Madrid to the title with England star Jude Bellingham set to miss out on consecutive wins
Perhaps surprisingly, Italian side Inter are third favourites with a 58.6 per cent chance
Simone Inzaghi’s outfit won Serie A at a canter last season and beat out a number of recent European champions in Opta’s list.
Arsenal complete the top four, despite not reaching the semi-finals of the competition since 2008-09. Mikel Arteta’s side, who are fiercely vying out with City for the Premier League title, are victorious in 6.3 per cent of scenarios.
Making up an English trio in the top seven are Liverpool who, under new boss Arne Slot, will be hoping to repeat their success of five years ago when they beat Tottenham in the final.
Three German sides feature in the ten teams with the highest likelihood of success, with Red Bull Leipzig a shock inclusion among the favoutites.
Marco Rose’s men came fourth in the Bundesliga last season and were knocked out in the Champions League in the last 16.
Girona are also suprisingly expected to make the second round after reaching the highest echelons of European football for the first time.
The Spanish side were cleared to compete in the tournament despite belonging to City Football Group, the same holding company which owns Man City.
It’s bad news, however, for Slovan Bratislava with the Slovakian outfit given a fat zero per cent chance of winning an shock Champions League trophy, and just a 1.2 per cent chance of making it to the next round.
Arsenal complete the top four, despite not reaching the semi-finals of the competition since 2008-09
Making up an English trio in the top seven are Liverpool who, under new boss Arne Slot (right), will be hoping to repeat their success of five years ago
Three German sides feature in the ten teams with the highest likelihood of success, with Red Bull Leipzig a shock inclusion among the favoutites
Aston Villa are competing in the tournament for the first time since it was rebranded, having won the trophy in 1982, but are not backed to do well by the boffins.
The Midlands side have been handed a one-in-three (32.3 per cent) chance of progressing through the league stage.
This season’s instalment will have a slightly different flavour to previous years, with the traditional group-stage format canned in favour of a league of 36 teams.
Each side will play eight fixtures against eight different teams, half at home and half away, to determine their position in the table.
The changes do not end there, however. This season is set to see the introduction of a brand new play-off phase, with the sides finishing ninth to 16th in the table to battle it out for a spot in the last 16 along with the top eight clubs.
Opta’s supercomputer also predicted the teams with the easiest set of fixtures in this league stage and it’s good news for Celtic fans.
Brendan Rodgers’ men have the least challenging route to the last 16, with home matches against Slovan Bratislava and Young Boys giving the Scottish outfit a shot at an unlikely march into the second round.
Former winners Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona have also been gifted some of the simplest set of matches while Liverpool have the second toughest draw.
Girona are also suprisingly expected to make the second round after reaching the highest echelons of European football for the first time
Aston Villa are competing in the tournament for the first time since it was rebranded, having won the trophy in 1982, but are not backed to do well
Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic side have the least challenging route to the last 16
The Reds face Milan and Leipzig away, as well as welcoming Bundesliga champions Leverkusen and Real Madrid to Anfield. Paris Saint-Germain are judged to have the nastiest set of fixtures.
Opta’s findings were calculated by simulating the tournament 10,000 times and using the results to form percentages.
This year’s revamped competition kicks off on Tuesday, with Aston Villa in action away at Young Boys and Liverpool facing a tough clash in Milan.
