Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis for second place in the final Iowa poll before the state’s caucuses on Monday, underscoring the 51-year-old’s growing momentum in the 2024 Republican race.
Donald Trump still holds a commanding lead over the field, with almost half of likely caucus goers supporting the 77-year-old former president, according to a Des Moines Register poll.
But the survey reveals the strength of Ms Haley’s upward momentum, with the former South Carolina governor receiving 20 per cent of support in the Hawkeye state.
It forces Mr DeSantis, the 45-year-old Florida governor, with 16 per cent of support, into third place.
The poll offers the final snapshot of voters’ preferences ahead of the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the Republican 2024 nomination contest.
It was conducted for the Des Moines Register and NBC News by the highly respected pollster J Ann Selzer, whose surveys are considered the gold standard for polling in the Hawkeye State.
Ms Selzer’s final polls in the presidential primaries have come to be known for accurately spotting late breakout candidates. She gained a national profile after correctly predicting Barack Obama’s win in Iowa in 2008.
Saturday night’s survey found that Mr Trump’s support has dipped marginally, from 51 per cent last month, to 48 per cent just days before the caucuses.
Despite Ms Haley enjoying her best performance yet in Ms Selzer’s polls, gaining four points since the last in December, the pollster said the data suggests that the 51-year-old’s support may be on “shaky ground”.
Turnout levels could pose a problem for Ms Haley, with Iowa facing a record-level cold front, with blizzard-like conditions dumping more than eight inches of snow.
Ms Selzer told the Des Moines Register that Ms Haley’s enthusiasm numbers “are on the edge of jaw-dropping”.
She said: “That 61 per cent are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic – it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.”
Mr Trump’s supporters appear to be the most energised, with almost 90 per cent describing themselves as “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic.
However, the former president’s strategists fear the combination of icy roads and a sense that Mr Trump’s victory is a foregone conclusion could suppress turnout among his base.
Mr Trump responded to the poll on Saturday night, saying: “Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to caucus for President Trump on Monday and get the job done. We have to show up.”
The results will be a major blow for Mr DeSantis, who has staked his presidential bid on a strong showing in Iowa, focusing the overwhelming majority of his resources in the state.
His campaign has stalled since his early promise in the polls, and he has gradually seen his numbers decline since he reached 19 per cent in a Des Moines Register poll by Ms Selzer last August.
However, there is still time for the candidates to sway voters’ minds, with the poll suggesting a quarter of likely caucus goers could still be swayed.
No other candidate breaks into double digits, with Vivek Ramaswamy, the 38-year-old businessman and political newcomer, placing fourth with eight per cent.
The poll surveyed 705 likely Republican caucus goers between Jan 7-12. It has a 3.7 per cent margin of error.
Some 69 per cent of those who said they are likely to caucus are Republicans, 5 per cent are Democrats, and 23 per cent are independents.
Democrats and independents in Iowa can participate in the GOP caucuses if they register as a Republican on the day.
According to the Des Moines Register, in 2012, the last time Republicans held a contested caucus and the Democratic race was not contested Republicans made up 75 per cent of the electorate, Democrats comprised 2 per cent and independents 23 per cent.