Most people dream of a white Christmas, but the holiday forecast suggests that only Americans in 18 states have a high chance of waking up to snow.
AccuWeather meteorologists report that snow is ‘a guarantee’ across the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains, which span Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado.
On the West Coast, large swaths of California, Oregon, and Washington are also likely to see snow on Christmas Day.
Chances are looking good throughout much of the Northeast as well, particularly in parts of Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, and Pennsylvania.
Northern parts of the Midwest, including areas in North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the northeast corner of Ohio, also have a strong chance of snow.
To qualify as a white Christmas, there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25.
However, Jared Rennie, a physical scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told DailyMail.com that southern states like Florida, Alabama, and Texas basically have a ‘zero chance’ of experiencing a white Christmas.
While forecasts are always subject to change, experts have been tracking white Christmases across the country since 1981. This historical data provides a good indication of which regions are more likely to see snow on the holiday
Most people dream about a white Christmas , but the holiday forecast suggests only Americans in 18 states have a high chance of waking up to snow. AccuWeather meteorologists reported that a snow is ‘a guarantee’ across the higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains
‘Generally speaking, there’s a north/south trend in the US,’ said Rennie.
‘Areas like northern New England, the Dakotas – they’re pretty much always guaranteed a white Christmas, even now in a changing climate,’ he said.
Indeed, as global temperatures have risen, white Christmases are becoming an increasingly rare phenomenon.
‘The number of white Christmases has certainly gone down in the last 10 years,’ Rennie said.
‘The major driver is simply just the temperatures – temperatures all across the US are pretty much rising.’
Every 30 years, NOAA produces a map of the historic probability of there being at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas day.
The most recent iteration is based on data that spans 1991 to 2020.
Gray areas have a low or no chance of seeing a white Christmas, states in blue have a moderate chance and light blue or white ares have a high chance.
Gray areas have a low or no chance of seeing a white Christmas, states in blue have a moderate chance and light blue or white ares have a high chance
The map shows that it’s highly unlikely for southern states to have accumulated snow on December 25 in any given year.
From Malibu to Miami and as far north as Virginia, states have a close-to-zero chance.
The coasts of California, Oregon and Washington are also unlikely to see snow on Christmas, even though these are northern states.
That’s mainly due to their maritime climate, which is characterized by mild temperatures even in winter.
But further inland, especially in and around the Rocky Mountains, the odds of having a white Christmas drastically increase, ranging from roughly 40 to 100 percent as the elevation skyrockets.
Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado all have historically high chances of accumulated snow on December 25.
Much of the Midwest shows similar odds, especially in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan.
As average temperatures have increased due to climate change, the number of white Christmases has declined throughout the US, data shows
Northeastern states, such as Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York and northern Pennsylvania, are also highly likely to have snow on Christmas day.
This historical data provides a general idea of which parts of the US are more or less likely to have a white Christmas. But actual weather patterns can vary widely from year-to-year, and it’s not uncommon for states to defy historical odds.
For example, 2023 was the greenest Christmas on record since 2003, AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok told DailyMail.com.
Only 17.6 percent of the US had snow cover on December 25 that year. Even states with a high historical probability – such as Wisconsin, Maine, Massachusetts and Michigan – had little to now snow on Christmas.
But the year before was the whitest Christmas on record since 2003, with 53 percent of the US covered in at least one inch of snow on December 25, 2022. Extensive cold temperatures and widespread snow stretched as far south as Tennessee that year.
This may make the odds of a white Christmas seem somewhat random. But looking at the data over the long term reveals clear trends, including an overall decline in the land area covered by snow on December 25, Rennie said.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, ‘total snowfall has decreased in many parts of the country since widespread observations became available in 1930, with 57 percent of stations showing a decline.’
That’s largely because as temperatures rise, winter precipitation is less likely to fall as snow, and more likely to fall as rain, sleet or freezing rain, he explained.
In addition, climate change is causing the winter to get shorter as the summer season stretches longer. Climate Central found that 98 percent (236) of 240 US locations analyzed have experienced shrinking winter cold streaks from 1970 to 2023.
That means the first snowfall of the year is happening later and later.
To those who enjoy snow and hope for a white Christmas each year, this data may sound discouraging. But even in a changing climate, there will still be years when a significant portion of the US is blanketed in white on December 25, Rennie said.
‘White Christmases, extreme snowfall, blizzards, lake effect snow – those are still going to happen. They’re never going to go away. It’s just that they’re the frequency of them are decreasing,’ he said.
