- Manchester City were given a 90.2 per cent chance of making it four in a row
- The Cityzens have however only won one of their last six games, drawing four
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Manchester City may be the reigning champions of Europe and England but their chances of retaining their Premier League crown have taken a major hit, according to Opta.
Pep Guardiola’s side have endured a rare rough patch in the last few weeks, winning just once in six Premier League outings dating back to the middle of November.
A 4-4 thriller at Chelsea sparked a run of four draws, one defeat and one victory as Guardiola’s previously irrepressible trophy-winning machine hit a sizeable bump in the road.
Yet while City have struggled in the run in to Christmas, rivals Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa have made hay in the sunshine, and all currently lead the Cityzens in the Premier League table.
At the start of the season, City were given a stupendous 90.2 per cent chance of going all the way once again by Opta’s supercomputer, which seemingly didn’t see, any of the other bog sides rivalling them in 2023-24.
Manchester City are only given a 39.3 per cent chance of winning the title this season, down more than 50 per cent from the start of the campaign
Man City have only won one of their last six games following a 2-2 draw against Crystal Palace
Now though, while still the most favoured team in the league, City are given just a 39.3 per cent chance of repeating their feat of last term after the stalemate against Crystal Palace.
That 2-2 draw – sealed by a last-minute penalty for the Eagles – in fact inflicted an 8.5 per cent decrease in their titles chances, having been at 47.7 per cent the week before after a win over Luton.
After City, the next most-likely team to win the Premier League is Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal, who of course pushed the champions all the way last time out.
Arsenal’s hopes had taken a bit of a knock after a defeat to Aston Villa the previous week, with their odds dropping to just 16.6 per cent.
However, a comfortable 2-0 win at home to Brighton on Sunday has almost doubled the likelihood of the Gunners ending their 20-year wait for a Premier League crown to 29.9 per cent – a 25.8 per cent increase from the start of 2023-24.
As such, they have retaken second spot from Liverpool after the Reds had usurped the lead at the top of the table in the previous matchweek.
Yet Opta clearly saw plenty in their 0-0 draw at home to Manchester United to decide that their credentials were not as strong as previously thought, dropping from 31.5 per cent to just 23.6 per cent, up 20.1 per cent from pre-season.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have of course won the title in 2019-20, although their recent experience is seemingly not enough to rank them higher than the Gunners, who have not won it since Arsene Wenger’s Invincibles in 2003-04.
Fourth-most likely to go all the way is unsurprisingly Aston Villa, after Unai Emery’s transformed side have erupted into the battle for Champions League football.
Mikel Arteta’s side are in second place according to Opta statistics after a win over Brighton
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool had been in second spot last week before a 0-0 draw with Man United
Aston Villa’s Unai Emery has transformed the side he inherited just over a year ago into genuine title contenders
The Villains have beaten both Arsenal and Manchester City already at home this season, and are among the most dangerous outfits in the league, sat just one point off the Gunners in third place, level with Liverpool.
A 2-1 comeback win over Brentford over the weekend has seemingly only strengthened their claim, with Opta improving their chances from 4.1 per cent to 6.8 per cent, although they still remain some way short of the three front-runners.
Fifth on the list is a Tottenham side that started strong but have been completely ravaged by injuries and suspensions in recent weeks, and now stand just a 0.4 per cent chance of claiming a first trophy in 15 years.
Numbers according to Opta Analyst statistics.
