A life-threatening warning has been issued in the Caribbean as a storm is gaining strength and could chart a path toward Florida.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory Thursday, saying that Tropical Depression 19 is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Sara today, unleashing deadly flash-flooding on Honduras through the weekend.
AccueWeather meteorologists said that there is a chance that the system could rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane before potentially making landfall on Florida’s west coast next Wednesday around 7pm ET.
‘But because of the proximity to land, rapid strengthening to a major hurricane now seems unlikely,’ AccuWeather experts stated.
And a new spaghetti model – so-called because the lines resemble strands of pasta – revealed at least two potential paths this storm could take to the US.
If it does become a hurricane, it will be named Hurricane Sara – the 12th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
‘Should the current tropical depression ramp up after it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico and become a hurricane, it would be the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida,’ AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk said.
‘If so, that will surpass the record of three landfalls in one season from 2004.’
Tropical Depression 19 is currently barreling toward Honduras, and could track toward Florida once it leaves the Caribbean, experts say
According to the NHC’s 7am ET update, likely Tropical Storm Sara is located about 250 miles east of Honduras’ Isla Guanaja and tracking west at 15 mph.
A spaghetti model created by Track the Tropics shows the storm making landfall in northern Honduras before curving northeast through Belize, the northeast corner of Guatemala and the southeastern tip of Mexico.
If the storm system does not dissipate as it moves through Central America and southeastern Mexico, Floridians may have to brace for yet another storm impact, according to AccuWeather.
‘The track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a dome of high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States and the speed of an approaching non-tropical storm and trailing cold front,’ meteorologists stated.
This high-pressure dome and cold front could steer the storm into Central America or southeastern Mexico late this week, they added.
If potential Tropical Storm Sara does swings toward the Sunshine State, it would most likely impact the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida peninsula.
But the NHC has stated that ‘it is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week.’
Experts are still keeping a close eye on this system as it is projected to strengthen as it encroaches on Central America.
A spaghetti model shows the storm making landfall in northern Honduras before curving northeast through Belize, the northeast corner of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico
AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said: ‘And now, with showers and thunderstorms developing a circulation, it will likely not be much longer until the tropical depression organizes into a tropical storm.’
That’s because ‘wind shear remains negligible over much of the Caribbean, and waters are plenty warm,’ he said, which will create optimal conditions for development.
The tropical depression, which is a cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds of 38 mph or less, is currently packing 35 mph winds and could drop a total of 30 inches of rain on northern Honduras, according to the NHC.
While this area will see the most intense impacts, the rest of the country as well as Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua could receive localized totals of 15 inches of rain through early next week.
AccuWeather meteorologists predict that the storm could hit Florida’s west coast by 7pm ET on November 20
‘This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides,’ the NHC stated.
As it tracks over land, the storm may lose wind intensity before turning toward the Gulf of Mexico, and might not have time to strengthen into a hurricane before it approaches Florida, according to AccuWeather.
Therefore, the odds of this storm becoming Hurricane Sara are unlikely, but there is still a slight chance.
‘Should the [rainstorm] become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes,’ AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
It is rare for Atlantic hurricanes to hit the US in November, which is the last month of hurricane season.
Of the 287 hurricanes that have made landfall in the US mainland since 1851, only four did so in November, according to NOAA’s records.
Three made landfall in Florida and one in North Carolina.
