A coalition of left wing parties could keep Reform UK out of power if they do not strike a deal with the Conservatives, a new poll has revealed.
Recent YouGov polling had the top five parties, Labour, Conservatives, Reform, Greens and Liberal Democrats, separated by just 10 points after Reform (24 per cent) failed to get a boost from the defection of three high-profile Tories.
Whether yesterday’s announcement of the defection of Suella Braverman will have an impact is yet to be seen.
However, a coalition slapped together by Labour on 19 per cent, Sir Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats on 14 per cent and Zack Polanski’s Green Party on 17 per cent would have the backing of half of the electorate.
A coalition between the Conservatives and Reform UK, which has been discussed as a potential outcome of the next election, would have the support of 29 per cent of Britons if Nigel Farage was Prime Minister and 25 per cent if Kemi Badenoch went into Downing Street.
However, either arrangement would be opposed by most Britons (56-57 per cent), including nearly half (45-47 per cent) who would strongly oppose such a Government.
Coalitions between Labour and parties of the right are the least popular, with just one in six Britons (16-18 per cent) supportive of a “grand coalition” between Labour and the Conservatives, regardless of who was prime minister.
The combination that remains the most popular (36 per cent) among all Britons is a coalition between Labour and the Liberal Democrats with Sir Ed Davey as Prime Minister.
This is backed by 79 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters, 63 per cent of Labour voters, 62 per cent of Green voters, 19 per cent of Tory voters and just six per cent of Reform UK voters.
Among Green Party voters, 88 per cent would back a coalition between Zack Polanski’s party and Labour if the London Assembly member became Prime Minister. This number falls to 61 per cent if Sir Keir Starmer remained in Downing Street.
Meanwhile, 61 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters back a coalition with Mrs Badenoch’s Conservatives, provided Sir Ed became Prime Minister.
The YouGov polling on voters’ preferences
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YOUGOV
Among Reform UK voters, 85 per cent would support a coalition between the Tories and Nigel Farage’s party should the Clacton MP become Prime Minister. However, this number falls to 55 per cent if Mrs Badenoch were to become PM.
With current Conservative voters, 66 per cent back a pact between the two right wing parties if Mrs Badenoch became Prime Minister, compared to 41 per cent if Mr Farage entered Downing Street.
A hope that Reform UK do not end up in office is held by 89 per cent of current Green supporters and 82-83 per cent of those currently intending to vote Labour or the Lib Dems.
Six in 10 current Reform UK supporters (61 per cent) would particularly not like to see the Greens in power after the next election, with most (54 per cent) also keen not to see the Lib Dems return to government, views held by 46 per cent and 30 per cent of current Conservatives respectively.
Zack Polanski said the Greens want to ‘replace’ Labour
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GETTY
Suella Braverman has defected to Reform | PA
The most recent YouGov polling suggests the Conservatives are more likely to act as a kingmaker than lead a coalition.
If they held the balance of power, half of Tory voters would prefer backing a Reform UK–led government, compared with just 13 per cent favouring Labour, while 24 per cent would rather stay in opposition.
In a hung parliament where Labour and the Conservatives were the two largest parties, most Tory voters would accept a coalition with either the Lib Dems or Reform UK to keep Labour out.
However, Reform UK is clearly the preferred partner overall, chosen by nearly twice as many Conservatives as the Lib Dems.
Kemi Badenoch has insisted the Tories are the ‘party of the right’
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PA
Former Cabinet Minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “There is almost no policy difference between Reform and the Tories, who united would command a winning share of the vote.
“Divided we risk letting a ragtag of the loony left determine the nation’s future. It is essential that we come together.”
While it has been suggested Mr Polanski would be open to doing a deal with Labour if Keir Starmer were to stand down, he reiterated over the weekend the Greens want to “replace” Labour.
He said: “I’ve said for many months now that we’re not here to be disappointed with Labour, but to replace them.
“As days pass and Labour seemingly finds new ways to disappoint people, I remain focused on growing the Green Party.”
The newest Reform MP Mrs Braverman said: “I’m calling time. I’m calling time on Tory betrayal. I’m calling time on Tory lies. I’m calling time on a party that keeps making promises with zero intention of keeping them.”
Meanwhile, Mrs Badenoch said: “We are the party of the right and must remain so.”
Last week, it was reported Liberal Democrat backbenchers were becoming frustrated by the current leadership under Sir Ed Davey
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PA
Last week, it was reported Liberal Democrat backbenchers were becoming frustrated by the current leadership under Sir Ed Davey, with one saying that morale was “low.”
One told The Guardian: “No one is saying get rid of Ed. But what they are saying is that those around him need to move with significant pace towards the development of a national story for the party to tell.
“We need to be a bit more serious about being the third party.”
However, one of Sir Ed’s predecessors and party frontbencher Tim Farron said: “This is the most united Liberal Democrat parliamentary party I have belonged to and it is by far the biggest.”
