The funny thing about waiting for an event – whether a job interview, a medical result or hearing if that big sale has exchanged or fallen through – is that the event itself is often far less stressful than the wait.
We aren’t good at dealing with uncertainty. We’d rather face a negative situation head-on than sit in limbo, imagining every worst-case scenario possible.
In the waiting period, our brain invents multiple problems and endless terrible outcomes that in most cases, never materialise. Waiting means you can’t want to act but it also means you can’t relax.
Labour’s decision to hold a Budget on October 30 made sense in so many ways – get in power, annoy some pensioners, go to a few gigs and spend a few months trying to find £22billion in savings and tax increases.
The Budget is likely to affect buyers
GETTY
The trouble is, they have made no secret of the fact that this Budget will hit us all hard. This may be a case of ‘underpromise and overdeliver’ to sweeten the pill when it comes, but so far the rumours are that Capital Gains Tax, Employer NI, Council Tax, Inheritance Tax, pension taxes and Stamp Duty could all be hiked enormously.
Whether or not any of these do increase isn’t the point; prospective buyers are in limbo, imagining every worst-case scenario if they commit to purchasing a property now.
This uncertainty is hitting agents in the pocket, and the number of buyers – especially investors – is drying up.
There is still activity and even some positive news around house prices but this could be eroded, especially if a number of the forecasted tax hikes do actually happen.
But buyers waiting doesn’t make much sense either. Purchasers who instead commit now will likely do better by beating the rush when everyone gets used to the ‘new normal’ in early 2025.
Rates look set to drop. Rental demand is likely to increase again courtesy of the mini landlord exodus we’ve all seen, and been told isn’t happening.
But because people hate uncertainty, especially in the property world, they will wait and there really isn’t much we can do about it. We can’t fight human nature.
The sensible thing would have been to have an immediate emergency Budget in July. Whatever was in it would now be old news and buyers would have returned.
Winter is never easy for agents or those working in the property sector, and the timing of this Budget has made it begin two months sooner than normal.
Property expert Jonathan Rolande is the founder of House Buy Fast and lead spokesman for the National Association of Property Buyers. For more information visit www.jonathanrolande.co.uk.
