Britain is swinging to the right with voters abandoning Keir Starmer’s Labour in droves, repeated national polls have found.
Reform UK, and to a lesser extent the Conservatives, are enjoying surges in their support since July’s General Election handed Labour a massive majority.
The Nowcast model, which is based on multiple recent GB wide polls and weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy, projected Labour to lose 128 seats if an election was held tomorrow.
It found Nigel Farage’s party would be the biggest benefactors winning 81 seats (up 76), followed by the Conservatives whose 22-seat increase would take their haul to 143 seats.
GB News has scanned through the Nowcast model’s results and can reveal all the big beasts projected to lose their seats in this scenario, Labour and Conservative.
BIG BEASTS SET TO LOSE SEATS TO REFORM
Angela Rayner / Reform gain from Labour
Starmer’s Deputy Prime Minister, who is also Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government, is the first in a slew of Cabinet ministers projected to lose their seat to Reform by the Nowcast model.
Rayner won her Ashton-under-Lyne by 6,791 votes in July, beating Reform UK into second.
But the Nowcast model now projects a 1.3 per cent majority for Reform.
Yvette Cooper / Reform gain from Labour
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is also projected to lose her northerly seat of Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley.
Almost exactly like Rayner, she won the seat by 6,630 votes over Reform UK.
The Nowcast model is giving Reform a 3.2 per cent majority here.
Bridget Phillipson / Reform gain from Labour
Another big beast cabinet member to lose their seat is Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.
Phillipson beat Reform UK into second by 7,168 in Houghton and Sunderland South.
The Nowcast model is projecting Reform to gain a 3.4 per cent majority.
John Healey / Reform gain from Labour
The final cabinet member projected to lose their seat to Reform is Defence Secretary John Healey.
Veteran of some 27 years as an MP, Healey won Rawmarsh and Conisbrough seat by 6,908 votes in July over Reform.
Now the Nowcast Model projects Reform to win with a 2.1 per cent majority.
The Labour Cabinet ministers set to lose their seats to Reform – Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Bridget Phillipson
House of Commons
Richard Holden/ Reform gain from Conservative
The first Conservative big beast to lose their seat to Farage’s army is Richard Holden, former chair of the Tory party.
Holden, Shadow Paymaster General, held on by the skin of his teeth in Basildon and Billericay in 2024, winning by 20 votes over Labour’s Alex Harrison who recorded 12,885 votes.
Reform, who came third on 11,354 votes, are now projected to win a 7.5 per cent majority.
Mark Francois / Reform gain from Conservative
Another high-profile Tory to lose their seat is Mark Francois, Shadow Minister of State for Defence.
The veteran MP, perhaps most famous for his trouble making and criticism of his own party, won Rayleigh and Wickford seat by 5,621 votes over Reform.
The Nowcast models predicts a narrow flip to Reform with a 0.4 majority.
LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:
OTHER LABOUR BIG BEASTS WHO WOULD LOSE SEATS
Wes Streeting / Independent gain from Labour
Keir Starmer’s Health Secretary only just won in July, beating a challenge from independent candidate Leanne Mohamad by 528 votes.
But the Nowcast model indicates Streeting’s time would be up if an election was held tomorrow with the independent candidate projecting a 6.8 per cent majority.
Jess Phillips / Workers’ Party gain from Labour
One of Labour’s highest profile MPs, Jess Phillips won her Birmingham Yardley seat by 693 votes over the Workers’ Party.
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls now faces losing her seat as the Workers’ Party project a 4.7 majority.
Rushanara Ali / Independent gain from Labour
Ali, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Homelessness and Democracy, won Bethnal Green and Stepney by a narrow 1,689 votes over an independent candidate.
The Nowcast model is now projecting a 3.8 per cent majority for the independent.
Despite repeated poll boosts, Reform has only managed to win seven of 176 council seats up for grabs since the July election.
The Conservatives have recorded a net gain of 22 seats, while Labour have suffered a net loss of 27 seats.
Reform has enjoyed the largest vote share bump however, up 7 per cent.
The party’s membership has also surged past 100,000 members, with Reform claiming to outnumber the Conservatives.
