Half of all Tory voters have no view on whether Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch is suitable as the new leader of the party, according to the pollster Sir John Curtice.
He told GB News: “Between two thirds and three quarters of people are unable to give a view as to whether or not they think they will be acceptable or unacceptable, or whether they think favourably or unfavourably towards them.
“Even those who voted conservative in 2019 and 2024, half of them, again, don’t express a view.
“The truth is these are largely unknown characters. Their ability to reach out to the wider public is certainly untested and untried.
“That doesn’t mean to say they necessarily lack the qualities, but hitherto at least, they’ve not demonstrated those qualities within a wider public forum. So that means that either of them, in some senses, is a little bit of a gamble.
‘A second point to bear in mind is that the sources of such popularity as they have vary somewhat between Conservative and Reform voters.
“Kemi Badenoch looks as though she is rather more popular amongst Reform voters than is Robert Jenrick, whereas the opposite is true amongst 2019 conservative voters.
“That at least raises a question mark about the ability of either of them to unite the right, to bring Conservative and Reform voters together, which many, at least inside the Conservative Party, believe will be a necessary first step towards its electoral recovery.”
He added: “Certainly, whoever wins, whether it’s Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick, will have quite a substantial task in front of them, trying to unite the parliamentary party, given that, in particular, the so-called One Nation group, people who are perhaps rather more towards the centre, are refusing to endorse either of them.
“That will certainly be a challenge. Was the conservative church too broad? Well, you can certainly argue that one of the characteristics of the last government, last parliament, were three prime ministers who were, frankly, all three of them in rather different places.
“Boris Johnson, yes, delivered Brexit, but on the role of the state was somebody who was quite happy to use the state and to spend more.
“Liz Truss, in contrast, well, actually, she voted remain, but was very much an economic liberal. And then Rishi Sunak, somewhere in between the two of them.
“One of the complaints about the last Parliament and the last Conservative government was the lack of consistency in delivery policies.
“One of the reasons why, for example, today, you’re seeing big business being courted by Labour is because many of those in the business and financial community before the election had come to the conclusion that the instability under the Conservatives, from their point of view, was one of the reasons why perhaps Labour looked as though it would be the safer bet.
“It was certainly the first time in my lifetime that the City in particular were willing to accept the prospect of a Labour victory.
“The truth is this shows how the Conservative Party lost the support of what we might regard as part of its broad natural constituency, those who run business, those in the financial world.
“They have become disenchanted with the Conservatives, therefore one of the tasks will be trying to get them back as well.”
