With smoking levels continuing to fall, he now regards excess weight and obesity as the “major driver, bar none, of long-term multiple health conditions”.
Both he and Prof McGowan believe that weight-loss jabs have an important role to play and could eventually bring some wider savings.
Prof McGowan says Ray is a good example: “We treat a lot of the complications associated with obesity. Ray has pre-diabetes. We’re hoping to go into remission and therefore prevent all the complications associated with that progressive disease.
“He might need joint surgery but achieving weight loss can prevent a lot of complications and ultimately save the NHS a lot of money.”
Prof Sattar says in 10 years there could be 20 weight-loss drugs on the market, including some in tablet form. As more effective and cheaper drugs become available, they could produce savings for the NHS, he says.
The UK government also thinks weight-loss drugs could eventually bring wider economic benefits.
A five-year trial in Manchester will look at the wider impact of Mounjaro beyond the individual health benefits, including whether it helps some people struggling with obesity to get back into work.
The drugs are not a magic bullet for obesity, but after decades of expanding waistlines, they offer hope to millions.
For now, though, the health service doesn’t have the resources to treat all those eligible. It means – for years to come – only a minority like Ray will get access on the NHS. The rest will have to pay – or go without.
