With the start of the New Year, and the biggest year on the planet for democratic elections, it is a good time to reflect on when our Prime Minister may call a General Election and what the outcome of that election may be.
I’ve always thought that the next General Election will be held in May 2024, at the same time as the local elections.
This year, the locals will be held on 2nd May. As Parliament needs at least a week or two to ‘mop up’ before dissolving, add in the 25 statutory working days between disillusionment and polling day, plus additional days for the two Bank Holidays over Easter, the PM would need to announce the General Election on or around 11th March.
Speculation says that a General is bound to be held in May as the PM won’t want the negative press if the locals are disastrous. The flip side of that coin is, of course, the polls.
Currently the Government trail behind Labour by over 20 points and the PM will, without question, be taking that into account.
Considering this, I now no longer believe May is a realistic month for the PM to aim to hold a General Election. He will be waiting to see what effects his policies and promises to the British people have had on people’s everyday lives.
People need to feel that they are better off than they currently do. Still to come are reduced energy prices after winter and tax breaks which he may announce at the next Budget.
October 2024 is also a month that has been heavily banded around the Press. However, I suspect that has just been plucked out of thin air rather than having any real basis.
The PM will call the General Election whenever he feels he can win. Yes, I did say ‘win’! My experience tells me that you write off the Tory Party at your peril!
Here in Calder Valley, we are a true ‘Bell Weather’ seat; it literally goes the colour of the Government at each General Election, and I can tell you from all our door knocking and survey information that Calder Valley is currently not switching to Labour.
Apathy currently is the order of the day, so it’s the Tories to lose, not Labour’s to win. There is no enthusiasm for Starmer, so we just need to give the electorate a reason to support us.
We also need to remind people of what we have achieved for them since 2010. With regards to Levelling Up, Calder Valley has received over £500m of investment and, if you include the Government’s support during the pandemic, we have had over a staggering £1billion during my time as the local MP.
This investment includes £196.5m for our new hospital reconfiguration at Calderdale Royal Hospital and Huddersfield Royal Infirmary; £150m for flood defences; millions for major rebuilds and expansion for 11 Calder Valley schools; significant investment in our train lines with each of our station platforms extended, all our signalling upgraded and the old pacer trains replaced with brand new CAF 195 trains; and £50m to regenerate Todmorden, Brighouse and Elland Town Centres.
There is more, and I believe the delivery by our Government is a record to be proud of; a record the previous Labour Government came nowhere near delivering for Calder Valley.
In a nutshell, the General Election will come this year but only when the Prime Minister feels he can win. I would not underestimate the possibility of a Conservative victory.
