Though much discussed throughout the summer, there has been negligible preparation across Europe and Britain for a Donald Trump’s second turn in the White House. The return presents a direct challenge on many fronts, not only to Europe but much of the rest of the world.
This time round he is likely to be less fettered – human biology and what remains of constitutional practice prevent a further term. The focus will be the base, the voters who gave him the smashing victory, and domestic matters will be uppermost.
The two most significant external concerns will be – and already are – handling the flow of migrants from the south, and the illegal migrant population inside America, some 14 million in number and increasingly vital to the economy.
Secondly, there is China. Trump has opted for a policy of confrontation – in trade and military security, in a manner which is as unsubtle as the base line of his political language. Dealing with China will bring a tougher tariff regime. This will also extend to Europe and the UK – it radiates the autonomous nationalism which informs the MAGA movement. To be great again, America must be Isolationist America.
Both American policy wonks and elements of the Chinese hierarchy, including Xi Jinping himself, seem to have set 2027 as some kind of deadline for possible military action to capture Taiwan. An amphibious assault across the Straits of Taiwan seems unlikely – despite the military exercises and chest thumping, neither side seems fully prepared for this scenario.
The Trump team will move swiftly to try to end hostilities in Ukraine – something he boasts he can fix in 24 hours, based on his special relationship with Vladimir Putin. Given the parlous state of Ukraine forces, he is likely to get armistice very soon – but the deal will be on Putin’s terms, and only temporary.
Both leaders will press for Ukraine’s neutrality and for Russia to occupy land already taken since 2014 and a bit more. Very likely Zelensky will be forced to go.
It is likely we could soon see Nato break down into separate regional clubs
The question then arises of Ukraine economic viability, with Russia threatening to choke Black Sea outlets, and national sovereignty. Putin seeks to aim to erode sovereignty, and his agents are already in Georgia and Moldova, to force Ukraine back into Moscow’s sphere of influence.
This strikes at the viability of the rules-based system followed by the UN, EU, OSCE and above all NATO. Trump seems bent on changing America’s role in Nato, of which he has been a perennial critic. America will ask the Europeans to do more in their own defence and security. There is even the prospect that the notion of an attack on one requires a response by all, enshrined in Article 5 of the founding treaty, will become optional, ie that allies will be requested rather than obliged to respond to an attack on any member. The US will also point to article 3 of the Washington Treaty which obliges a member ally to take full responsibility for its own defence, and Article 4 obliging full cooperation and consultation between members.
It is likely we could soon see Nato break down into separate regional clubs – for Europe and the wider security areas of members; and on occasion this might include the Middle East and Africa.
This means that Britain will be expected to take a leadership role in Europe along with Germany and France. Given the current political fractures in France and Germany, the Nordic and Baltic allies plus Poland require more practical action and commitment from Britain – about which both Conservative and Labour governments have seemed surprisingly reluctant.
For Britain the return of Trump and the worsening security of Europe, illustrated by the increasingly persistent cyber and sabotage attacks from Russia, mean a need to overhaul radically its defence and security policies and apparatus. They need to be more focused, realistic and practical. Extravagant schemes like the AUKUS submarine and cyber treaty with the US and Australia must be reconsidered.
The upcoming Strategic Defence Review, due next spring, has now been overtaken by events in Europe and the Middle East and beyond, and, not least the return of Donald Trump. It may seem counterintuitive to most of the Starmer government and their political culture, but defence and security are now a priority. Their future, as well as our, depends on it.
And a quick PS to the PM in his bunker: with the return of Trump that special relationship is going to look a lot less special – if it ever was really special at all.
Robert Fox is the Evening Standard’s defence correspondent
