September was the deadliest month for Russia’s army since the start of the war in Ukraine, British military intelligence said on Monday.
The average casualty rate for the Russian army rose to 1,271 soldiers killed or badly injured per day.
Previously, the highest daily casualty rate for Russian soldiers had been in May, with an average of 1,262 soldiers killed or injured.
“The increase in the casualty rate since May 2024 is almost certainly due to the extension of the combat zone to include both Kharkiv and Kursk military operations, and increased intensity along the frontline,” the Ministry of Defence said.
Russia launched a surprise invasion of the Kharkiv region from its Belgorod region in May, while its forces suffered high casualties attempting to repel Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into the Kursk region.
September was also the fifth consecutive month that Russian casualties averaged more than 1,000 soldiers per day.
Analysts said that the high casualty rate was linked to Russian mass infantry tactics, often involving “meat wave” assaults where large numbers of troops are sent to storm Ukrainian defensive positions.
“I expect Russia to continue to grind forward, probing for weakness. Very grim. We can’t expect a Russia pause over the winter,” said John Foreman, Britain’s former defence attache in Moscow.
The MoD said that Russia had now lost nearly 650,000 soldiers since its invasion in February 2022. Its casualties averaged between 172 and 559 per day in 2022, then peaked at 967 in 2023.
“Russian forces will highly likely continue to attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces by utilising mass to overwhelm defensive positions,” it said.
Over the past 14 months, Russia has been making steady gains in eastern Ukraine, but at a high cost.
Last week, Russia captured the shattered town of Vuhledar from Ukraine after a lengthy battle including two failed past attempts.
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The town, once considered a “fortress”, had never before been captured and it marked the most significant battlefield victory since Kremlin troops took control of Avdiivka in February.
Analysts warned that Russian forces will now be able to use the town as a launchpad to capture other Ukrainian strongholds to the west.
In the Kharkiv region, a pro-Ukrainian Russian activist-turned-soldier was killed fighting for Kyiv’s forces on Saturday.
Ildar Dadin was well-known in anti-Kremlin circles for being the first person sent to prison under tightened 2014 laws against anti-government protests in Russia. He had been fighting for a volunteer battalion since 2023.
