Rishi Sunak has finally confirmed that next year will be an election year, ruling out a dreaded January 2025 election.
But the PM still appears undecided on when exactly the UK will go to the polls.
The five priorities Sunak asked the public to judge him on when he took office were halving inflation, growing the economy, getting debt falling, slashing NHS waiting lists and stopping the boats.
He’s only achieved one of these so far – halving inflation – so surely the PM should be giving himself as much time as possible to complete the job? On that logic, the UK would be looking forward to a November election.
Rishi Sunak has finally confirmed that next year will be an election year
PA
But what are the perks of holding it earlier?
Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement, which saw him unveil a number of tax cuts, fuelled speculation that he could be gearing up for an election in the first half of the year.
In November, the Chancellor made the surprise announcement that he will slash national insurance by two per cent. But rather than waiting until the new tax year, begining in April, he brought forward the change to January.
This could allow voters to feel the cash benefits of the change, even before a May election.
There’s also the thought that voters are more favourable towards an incumbent Government in the summer months. Not only do longer days and warmer evenings simply put people in a better mood, but the end of the year brings short, cold days – and soaring heating bills.
A May election would also see the Government avoid having to justify another summer of soaring small boat arrivals, as milder conditions make way for more crossings.
Unless Sunak manages to successfully implement the beleaguered Rwanda plan, an election late in the year would leave the Government to battle yet another summer of Channel crossings.
But while a May election does have tangible advantages – it also means the Government will be submitting to calling an election while 20 points behind in the polls.
However, waiting for an Autumn election is also a gamble. The polls could worsen even further as we head into another winter.
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But many believe a late election is the only chance of avoiding a brutal defeat.
The party would be gambling on the hope that it will feel a late poll bounce after giving Sunak as many as six more months to tick off a few more of his priorities – and allowing voters more time to feel the impact.
