It has been more than a century since an established political party was successfully overtaken by an insurgent newcomer, when the Liberals gave way to Labour.
The rise of Reform UK to its status as a political force that is able to pose a threat to the Conservatives – even with only five MPs, despite its 15 per cent of the vote share – is underscored by the row between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch over who has the most members.
Nevertheless, if Reform is to finish the job, it will need more than a website counter boasting of its supporters; it will need defections on all sorts of levels, from ordinary voters (22 per cent of Tories from July’s election say they will now vote Reform) to councillors, donors, and MPs.
Reform has already wooed Tories including businessman Zia Yussuf, who is now party chair; billionaire Nick Candy, who is its new treasurer; ex-MPs Andrea Jenkyns and Aidan Burley; and Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie. But it needs more high-profile names.
Senior figures claim that many more former and even current Tory MPs are preparing to join – assertions that were only reinforced by former MP for Dudley North, Marco Longhi’s Friday night defection to the party. But the really big fish have yet to bite.
Part of the problem could be that senior figures in Reform have very different ideas about who are the best people to attract. But if 2025 is to be the year that propels the party towards bigger wins, then some of the names on its various wishlists (depending on who you talk to) need to come over. Here are a handful of the figures being targeted.
Lost leader
The idea that Boris Johnson could defect to Reform UK seems utterly fanciful, and he has previously said he would not abandon the Conservatives. But The Independent has been told by figures in Farage’s party that some of them would like to see it happen, and do not think it entirely impossible.
The arrival of the billionaire donor Candy makes this speculation a little more interesting. He brings cash to the party, but he also has longstanding friendships with both Farage and Johnson as well as with Donald Trump, who could prove to be an important link himself. One source has said that Candy is exactly the sort of person who could bring Farage and Johnson together, and Johnson, thence, into Reform.
Furthermore, Kemi Badenoch’s election as Tory leader has rather closed the door on Johnson coming back as a Tory MP, given that she played a part in his downfall.
The thought of Johnson in Reform may not be attractive to Farage; history shows that there is never room for two enormous personalities in the parties he has run. But if it could be pulled off, it could be the end of the Tories and represent a realignment on the right.
In truth, it would almost certainly only happen if the Conservative Party had all but collapsed already, leaving little choice.
Darlings of the right
Suella Braverman is a name often quoted in discussion of likely defectors. The former home secretary certainly has the right-wing credentials for Reform, and her husband Raul recently defected to the party.
But she was clear with The Independent that she has no plans to follow her husband. She is understood to feel loyalty to her constituency party and she still harbours Tory leadership ambitions.
Nevertheless, Reform has pursued her. She would provide the kind of strong, charismatic female presence the party is desperately missing at the moment, and it would be a signal to the right of the Tories that the game is over.
Robert Jenrick has regularly been bandied around as a possible defector since losing in the final leadership vote-off with Badenoch. There seems to be little evidence that he wants to defect, despite his having become an anti-immigration hardliner whose rhetoric often echoes that of Reform.
The reality is that if Tory MPs do defect, they will likely come from the list of people who supported Jenrick.
Brexiteers
Mark Francois, chair of the European Research Group (ERG) and in many ways the very epitome of a Brexiteer MP, has certainly been a target of conversations within Reform.
However, it is understood that he is still angry at the way Reform split the vote for many of his Tory friends who subsequently lost their seats, and finds it difficult to forgive Farage or Richard Tice, even though ideologically he is very much on their page.
Francois has also always claimed that he is too much embedded in the Tory family to want to switch parties. Added to all of this, Badenoch has wisely given him a job as No 2 in her defence team.
Jacob Rees-Mogg would certainly be a high-profile scalp should he decide to defect. He is a friend of Farage, and of others in Reform, as well as a fellow GB News host, besides which his sister Annunziata was a Brexit Party MEP. Yet his tribal links to the Tories make this move seem unlikely (though it is not impossible).
Defeated MPs
Alongside Marco Longhi – whose name had long cropped up on a possible list of defectors after being heavily wooed before the general election – other former so-called red wall Tory MPs have also been mentioned. These include both Brendan Clarke-Smith (formerly MP for Bassetlaw) and Tom Hunt (formerly MP for Ipswich). But both of them have made it clear that they want to stand for the Tories again.
The thinker
Phillip Blond – director of the RespPublica think tank, Conservative visionary, former adviser to David Cameron, inventer of Red Toryism and the Big Society – is a name to look out for. In some ways, he is among the more likely defectors.
Blond has been prevented from standing for parliament by the Conservatives – probably because he is too much of his own person and quite outspoken. But he is one of the few genuine intellectuals in conservatism, and would be quite a catch for Reform. Possibly all the party needs to do is give him a winnable seat to run in.
A defection by Blond would be comparable to Con Home founder Montgomerie’s departure, which was something of a shock; it would mean that not only was money leaving the Conservatives, but also those with ideas.
