The UK is facing a “ticking clock” as millions of migrants will be handed indefinite leave to remain, an expert has claimed.
In a piece for the Adam Smith Institute think tank, Sam Bidwell warned about the consequential changes mass migration has brought to the UK.
Last week, the latest ONS migration figures were published, showing that immigration to the UK has gone over 1.2 million for the third consecutive year.
This is the largest wave of migration that Britain has seen in recent history.
Average “low-wage” migrant workers will cost British taxpayers £465,000 by the time they reach their 80s
PA
In his piece titled ‘Britain’s ILR emergency’, Bidwell wrote: “If, as the Prime Minister says, our migration policy constitutes ‘different order of failure‘, then the Government must reform immigration rules to reflect the real needs of our economy and the expressed will of the British people.”
He added that the number of migrants will need to come down and there will need to be “fewer restrictions on domestic training and the removal of blockers to automation will be needed to help the UK’s workforce adapt to this new lower-migration environment.”
However even if rules are changed, migrants already living in the UK under the work or family visa route are eligible to apply for indefinite leave to remain after legally living in Britain for a qualifying number of years.
This means they can stay in the UK indefinitely, with access to the NHS, universal credit and social housing.
They will also be eligible to receive the UK state pension after ten years of National Insurance contribution.
Bidwell cautioned that ILR eligibility could climb into the millions, saying “our system was not designed to cope with long-term settlement at such scale and pace.”
According to OBR figures, average “low-wage” migrant workers will cost British taxpayers £465,000 by the time they reach their 80s.
An analysis conducted by Karl Williams from the Centre for Policy Studies found that just five per cent of work visas in 2022-23 were handed to high-skilled migrants who could become net contributors.
Meanwhile, 72 per cent of “skilled work visas” went to migrants likely to earn less than the average salary in the UK.
72 per cent of “skilled work visas” went to migrants likely to earn less than the average UK salary
GETTY
Bidwell wrote: “It is clear that opening the ILR door to millions of new migrants will impose a considerable and unwanted fiscal burden on the British taxpayer, for decades to come.”
He also stated that according to November 2025 figures from YouGov, 68 per cent of British citizens say that immigration has been too high over the past decade.
He questioned if British people “should have to live with the consequences of policy failure which they did not ask for?”
Bidwell argued that the government must reform the rules around ILR, and said it would mitigate the long-term fiscal burden of low-skilled migrants as well as give Britain greater control over reissuing visas to those who have arrived over the past few years.
“If the Government determines that it was mistaken in handing out visas to particular individuals or to particular categories of person, then it could reasonably refuse to reissue those visas; this process is made easier without the addition of a ‘ticking clock’, namely the five-year ILR threshold for many visa holders,” he said.
At the same time Bidwell said the UK should put safeguards in place to ensure that “high-quality, compatible” migrants from countries such as the US, Australia, and Canada continue coming to Britain.
Migrants from these countries tend to work in high-skilled professions and play a big role in supporting the financial and technological sectors.
