Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League have taken a dent after their 3-2 defeat at the hands of Man United, according to the latest supercomputer predictions.
The Gunners had the chance to go seven points clear at the top of the table with a win but Matheus Cunha’s 87th-minute winner ensured the victory went to Michael Carrick’s side on Sunday.
Mikel Arteta’s men will be keen to right those wrongs in their next three league games against Leeds, Sunderland and Brentford, but the number-crunchers at Opta reckon Arsenal are now less likely to win the league after that loss.
After United beat Man City the weekend prior to their win at the Emirates, the stats gurus had Arsenal’s chances of claiming their first Premier League title since 2004 at 89.3 per cent.
As of Monday, though, Opta – whose calculations are formed through metrics such as expected goals (xG) to predict expected points (xPTS) – reckon the Gunners’ chances have been knocked down to 81.7 per cent.
Still, Arsenal remain by far the favourites to clinch the trophy with an xPTS total of 81.05, with their calculations putting Aston Villa in second ahead of Man City, who they currently think will finish third.
Opta’s supercomputer has knocked Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League this year
The predictions have Aston Villa pipping Manchester City to a second place finish in the league
Pep Guardiola’s side are predicted to rack up 72.94 points this campaign and finish in third
Villa, who are currently behind City on goal difference, are predicted to earn 73.13 points come the end of the season, pipping Pep Guardiola’s men, who are expected to reach 72.94.
The league suggests that Unai Emery’s side have just a 9.3 per cent chance of winning the title even if they do finish second, while City are said to have an 8.7 per cent shot.
Somewhat surprisingly, rounding out the top four in the supercomputer’s newest table are Liverpool.
Despite the Reds’ defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday, Opta believe Arne Slot’s men have enough to beat Chelsea to fourth place.
Early suggestions, however, are that there will be five Premier League clubs in next season’s Champions League again, meaning the Blues could compete in Europe’s top competition next campaign if the predictions are right.
And it would see them beat United to the highly coveted European slot, with the supercomputer leaving Michael Carrick’s resurgent Red Devils in sixth place, which would ensure they qualify for next season’s Europa League.
Below them is Newcastle who, despite qualifying for the Champions League last campaign, are predicted to finish seventh come the end of this season. Eddie Howe’s men are currently ninth.
Rounding out the top ten in the table, meanwhile, are Fulham in eighth, Brentford in ninth and Everton in 10th.
Tottenham
Manchester City
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Opta’s newly released supercomputer predicted table shows their predictions for the season
Despite their resurgence, Man United are not predicted to secure Champions League football
Beneath David Moyes’ Toffees – predicted to earn 52.27 points – are Brighton, who narrowly miss out on a top-half finish with an anticipated finish of 51.69 points.
Following the Seagulls is Bournemouth in 12th, Sunderland – who are currently 10th – in 13th, and Crystal Palace in 14th.
And in bad news for Tottenham fans, the supercomputer thinks things will get worse.
Not only are Thomas Frank’s side currently 14th, which is bad enough to warrant significant pressure on the Danish manager, Opta’s predictions have Spurs finishing the season in 15th with an xPTS total of 47.18.
While those suggestions have them well clear of the relegation zone, the supercomputer reckons there is a 1.53 per cent chance Frank’s men could be sent to the Championship.
However, the clubs beneath them in the table are far more likely to go down, according to the suggestions.
Nottingham Forest, with a predicted points total of 43.54 in 16th, are just under 9 per cent likely to take the plunge.
Meanwhile, Leeds – despite their impressive recent run of form – are expected to finish just above the bottom three with 43.25 points.
Still, that has them well clear of safety as West Ham (34.83 xPTS), Burnley (28.92 xPTS) and Wolves (21.71 xPTS) are all expected to be playing in England’s second tier next season.
In fact, such is the malaise at Wolves that they have a predicted 99.9 per cent chance of going down. Rob Edwards would be expected to pull off a miracle to keep the Wanderers afloat.
Burnley, meanwhile, are 97.4 per cent likely to end their season with relegation, while the Hammers are predicted at 81.08 per cent.
