Russia’s crucial diesel attack submarines may have to withdraw from the Mediterranean Sea as Moscow appears to have been kicked out of its naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus.
The new Syrian government terminated a 49-year lease on the base the Kremlin brokered with the Bashar al-Assad regime in 2019, according to Russian and Syrian media reports.
Two Russian cargo ships that had been waiting offshore for three weeks were tracked entering the port on Tuesday and Wednesday to begin a probable evacuation.
It marks a major loss for Russia. The port at Tartus has played a vital role as a hub for its military presence in the Mediterranean, which it has increased over the past decade to support its operations in Africa.
Russia effectively lost its military use of the port in early December, when its fleet withdrew 10 miles off the coast as Moscow-backed dictator Assad was overthrown after a lightning-quick rebel offensive.
The lease cancellation will be another blow to the Kremlin’s hopes of retaining the port, which it has held since 1971, after it said it had reached an “informal understanding” with the new Syrian government over its use last month.
Rows of military vehicles and hardware have been lined up at the port, waiting to be taken away, since the ships left.
Riad Judi, Syria’s customs director, said revenues from the port would now be used for the “benefit of Syria”, as he accused Moscow of not modernising the facility’s equipment as dictated by the terms of the 2019 deal.
Russian troops, for now, are continuing to operate at its Khmeimim air base in the Syrian port city of Latakia.
Tartus is the only Russian facility in the region capable of sustaining its diesel-electric powered submarines, which are cheaper and often quieter than nuclear-powered boats but require regular refuelling.
Moscow had maintained a near constant undersea presence of at least two attack submarines in the region since 2013, until the Kalibr missile-carrying Novorossiysk withdrew earlier this month.
Without Tartus, any of Russia’s submarines — diesel-electric or nuclear — deployed in the region would have to remain at sea, with only the possibility of an occasional visit to a friendly port that could not offer long-term logistical and infrastructure support.
‘Russia will struggle to sustainably operate’
Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy officer and naval warfare expert, said that Russia would now “struggle to sustainably operate” any submarines at all in the Mediterranean.
Nuclear-powered submarines can operate at sea for much longer than conventionally-powered submarines without docking, but experts said their deployments could also be hampered by the loss of Tartus, which is reportedly able to service nuclear-powered submarines and ships.
The last Russian nuclear-powered submarine detected in the Mediterranean was the Severodvinsk in 2022, although it is unclear whether it docked at Tartus.
H I Sutton, a Naval analyst, writing for Naval News, said it was possible Russia could have a nuclear submarine operating in the region, but considered it “unlikely”.
The potential loss of Tartus is likely to send the Kremlin scrambling to find alternative bases with its North African allies.
Algeria has long-standing friendly relations with Russia and ports that already serve its navy’s Russian-built submarines.
These facilities could assist Russian vessels, but access would be dependent on the permission of the Algerian government, which has expressed recent concern over Russia’s growing influence in neighbouring Mali.
Another option would be war-torn Libya, where Russia already appears to be increasing its foothold as it retreats from Syria.
A growing partnership with Khalifa Haftar, the warlord who controls the eastern and southern parts of the country, could open up the ports of Tobruk and Benghazi to Russian warships and submarines.
However, analysts have questioned whether either of the ports are large enough or in good enough shape to accommodate warships and submarines.
